# St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37146) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado Rapids ## Model verdict - **St. Louis City win:** 69% - **Draw:** 17% - **Colorado Rapids win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hosts carry clear statistical edge as goals market looks tight ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This fixture arrives with a clear pre-match hierarchy in the model's probabilities: the home side is favoured at 69%, the draw sits at 17%, and the away outcome is at 14%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form tilts strongly toward the home side. The home team have strung together a sequence that reads WWWDW in their last 10, yielding 1.70 points per game and an average of 1.70 goals scored while conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors come into this game with a WLLWL sequence in their last 10, returning 1.00 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model's Elo comparison, with home advantage already applied, gives the hosts a 176-point edge[^fact-3], a differential that underpins the model probabilities and helps explain the sizable gap between home and away chances[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Offensive form for the home side is concentrated around Marcel Hartel, who has two goals and two assists in his last four appearances and boasts an average rating of 8.16 across that run[^fact-7]. The visitors' most notable attacking influence recently is Paxten Aaronson, who has one goal and three assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.28[^fact-8]. Availability will matter: the hosts are missing Célio Pompeu through injury[^fact-9], while the visitors will be without Wayne Frederick due to suspension after accumulating 537 minutes in their recent run[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy in the model's analysis concerns the goals market. The model flags Under 2.5 goals as the top value pick, assigning a 54% probability to that outcome versus a Betfair market price quoted at 2.45, producing an edge of 13.6 percentage points for the model (high confidence)[^fact-6]. This value finding comes from the convergence of both sides' recent scoring and concession rates — the hosts averaging 1.70 goals and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4] and the visitors averaging 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5] — and is one of three markets the model compared against market prices in this analysis[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side (69% home / 17% draw / 14% away), supported by a 176-point Elo advantage with home advantage applied and stronger recent form metrics for goals and points[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The clearest market inefficiency is the Under 2.5 goals angle, where the model's 54% probability contrasts with a Betfair price of 2.45 for an estimated 13.6-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 17% / Away 14% (source: model; confidence high, 52 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOU vs CLR — Elo differential +176 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOU recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CLR recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **LOU in-form player** — Marcel Hartel — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.16. [^fact-8]: **CLR in-form player** — Paxten Aaronson — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-9]: **LOU key absence** — Célio Pompeu  out (injury). [^fact-10]: **CLR key absence** — Wayne Frederick out (suspension), 537 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .