# St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37146) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **St. Louis City win:** 69% - **Draw:** 16% - **Colorado Rapids win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.45 | Betfair | 54% | +13.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### St. Louis holds the statistical edge as Rapids face selection headache ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. The fixture lands in a run of midseason fixtures where points and momentum matter; markets have already digested the balance and compared three market lines to the model[^fact-10]. ## Form & momentum St. Louis City arrive with more consistent recent results: WWWDW over the last 10 matches, a 5-2-3 record (W-D-L), and 1.70 points per game, scoring 1.70 and conceding 1.50 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Colorado Rapids show a patchier run: WLLWL in their last 10, a 3-1-6 record (W-D-L), and 1.00 points per game, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential tilts heavily toward the home side, with LOU holding a +176-point edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those three measures — recent results, per-match output, and Elo — all point the same way. The Elo gap is large enough to be meaningful in model terms and aligns with the clearer win-rate and points-per-game advantage for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel St. Louis have an in-form attacking fulcrum in Marcel Hartel, who has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 8.16 in that run[^fact-6]. That level of direct goal involvement and match rating indicates the team’s recent attacking thrust often runs through him[^fact-6]. Colorado’s brightest contributor in recent weeks is Paxten Aaronson, who has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.28[^fact-7]. Availability will shape tactical choices: St. Louis will be without Célio Pompeu due to injury[^fact-8]. Colorado are without Wayne Frederick through suspension; Frederick has logged 537 minutes in the recent run prior to his ban[^fact-9]. Those absences remove specific outlets for each side and will force rotation or role adjustments[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s outcome probabilities sit at Home 48% / Draw 25% / Away 28% according to the analysed market comparison, with the model carrying high confidence and a 20 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That probability distribution aligns with the Elo advantage and St. Louis’s superior recent points-per-game figure[^fact-3][^fact-4]. Markets analysed (three lines) were contrasted with the model to isolate edges[^fact-10]. The clearest edge is the home win probability: the model gives the home side the largest single probability bucket at 48% and places the draw substantially lower at 25% and the away outcome at 28%[^fact-2]. Where markets compress draw and away chances together, the model’s separation between home and the rest suggests the home outcome represents the highest expected value relative to consensus pricing[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Personnel-driven insights also point to trade-offs markets may underprice. Hartel’s recent 2 goals and 2 assists in four implies a higher chance of direct involvement than raw team numbers might show, and that can skew anytime-goal or involvement markets in St. Louis’s favour[^fact-6]. Conversely, Aaronson’s 1 goal and 3 assists in five suggests Colorado still has creative threat even if their recent team form lags[^fact-7]. The absences of Célio Pompeu and Wayne Frederick remove discrete tactical options and could depress offensive output for each side to varying degrees[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side: a near-majority home probability at 48% sits above the draw (25%) and away (28%) chances, supported by a +176-point Elo edge and cleaner recent form metrics for St. Louis[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Personnel notes — Hartel’s current run and the two notable absences — refine the picture rather than overturn it[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 25% / Away 28% (source: odds; confidence high, 20 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOU vs CLR — Elo differential +176 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOU recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CLR recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **LOU in-form player** — Marcel Hartel — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.16. [^fact-7]: **CLR in-form player** — Paxten Aaronson — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-8]: **LOU key absence** — Célio Pompeu  out (injury). [^fact-9]: **CLR key absence** — Wayne Frederick out (suspension), 537 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .