# San Diego vs Dallas > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37147) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** San Diego 1–0 Dallas ## Model verdict - **San Diego win:** 35% - **Draw:** 24% - **Dallas win:** 41% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight game expected as model leans to Dallas away edge ## The stage This is a mid-summer Major League Soccer fixture with kickoff set for Sun 26 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match carries the usual competitive weight of a regular-season MLS meeting; the model presents an away advantage in its probabilities while the Elo differential after applying home advantage still slightly favours the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum San Diego arrive on a low-yield run: LLDWD in their last 10, a 1-3-6 W-D-L split, producing 0.60 points per game and scoring 1.70 goals while conceding 2.00 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Dallas show clearer recent momentum with DWWLW across their last 10, a 4-3-3 W-D-L split, averaging 1.50 points per game and logging 1.80 goals scored against 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model assigns a 35% chance to the home side, 24% to a draw and 41% to an away win — a modest, low-confidence lean toward Dallas with a 6 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. The Elo edge, already adjusted for venue, gives Dallas a +16-point advantage here[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and ratings both tilt toward Dallas but without an overwhelming signal from the model[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel San Diego’s primary attacking spark in recent weeks has been Marcus Ingvartsen, who has scored 4 goals and provided 0 assists across his last 5 appearances while carrying an average match rating of 7.25[^fact-7]. That output is significant given San Diego’s modest team scoring rate over the same sample[^fact-4][^fact-7]. On the Dallas side, Petar Musa has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances with an average rating of 6.94[^fact-8]. Availability questions matter: San Diego will be without Jeppe Tverskov through injury; he logged 351 minutes in the recent run before missing this match[^fact-9]. Dallas are also missing Bernard Kamungo to injury, though his recent involvement was limited to 28 minutes in the run referenced[^fact-10]. Those absences change personnel depth differently for each side: San Diego lose a longer-run regular contributor in minutes terms[^fact-9], while Dallas are missing a player with minimal recent minutes[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags a single high-confidence pricing divergence: Under 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 goals while the market price at 10Bet sits at 2.90, yielding an edge of 19.9 percentage points and a high-confidence rating from the model[^fact-6]. That edge aligns with both teams’ recent scoring patterns — San Diego’s 1.70 goals for and 2.00 against per match in the reference window and Dallas’s 1.80 for and 1.50 against — which together imply a game that the model expects can be tighter than market lines suggest[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model compared three markets in total against market prices during its analysis[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to Dallas with a 41% probability versus 35% for San Diego and a 24% draw probability, but notes low confidence in the win probabilities and a modest Elo edge of +16 points to Dallas after home advantage[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The clearest analytical signal is for a low-scoring contest: Under 2.5 goals carries the largest model-market edge and the highest confidence in the projection[^fact-6]. Marcus Ingvartsen and Petar Musa remain the form threats to watch, while San Diego’s loss of Jeppe Tverskov is the more substantive personnel blow on minutes grounds[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 35% / Draw 24% / Away 41% (source: model; confidence low, 6 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SDL vs DAL — Elo differential +16 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SDL recent form** — LLDWD last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DAL recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.90 at 10Bet, edge 19.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SDL in-form player** — Marcus Ingvartsen — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-8]: **DAL in-form player** — Petar Musa — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-9]: **SDL key absence** — Jeppe Tverskov  out (injury), 351 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **DAL key absence** — Bernard Kamungo out (injury), 28 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .