# SJ Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37149) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 45% - **Draw:** 17% - **LA Galaxy win:** 38% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.88 | Betfair | 54% | +19.7 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and an in-form striker shape the outlook ## The stage The San Jose Earthquakes host the LA Galaxy in Major League Soccer on Sun 26 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC.[^fact-1] This match pairs a home side with an established model edge and a visiting side that must arrest a patchy run; both teams enter with tangible recent form narratives.[^fact-1] ## Form & momentum San Jose arrive on the back of a ten-game sequence recorded as LWLLD, translating to 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses and 1.70 points per game, while scoring 2.40 and conceding 1.80 per match.[^fact-4] The Galaxy’s last ten read LLDWL, a 3-3-4 ledger worth 1.20 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match.[^fact-5] The probabilistic model gives the home side the clear edge — a 51% probability to win versus a 26% probability for the away side, with a draw at 23% — a 25 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high confidence tag on that spread.[^fact-2] Complementing that view, an Elo differential already applying home advantage places San Jose +110 points ahead of LA Galaxy, a substantial single-match gap on the Elo scale.[^fact-3] Taken together, the numbers say San Jose hold momentum: higher points-per-game, a superior goal rate, an Elo cushion and the model’s majority probability all point the same way.[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2] ## Personnel San Jose’s attacking spark in recent weeks has been Preston Judd, who has 4 goals, 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.19.[^fact-6] That sequence accounts for a meaningful chunk of the team’s recent goals haul and will be central to San Jose’s chance creation.[^fact-6] The Earthquakes will also be without Timo Werner through injury; Werner has logged 330 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence.[^fact-8] For LA Galaxy the in-form reference is Gabriel Pec, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last three appearances with an average rating of 7.88.[^fact-7] The Galaxy’s defensive options are weakened by the absence of Julián Aude, who contributed 73 minutes in the recent run before missing this fixture through injury.[^fact-9] These personnel notes highlight a contrast: San Jose rely on a hot finisher and a notable attacking absence, while LA have a high-rated recent performer but are missing minutes from an important defensive contributor.[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-9] ## Where the model sees value The model assigns a 51% win probability to the home side, 23% to a draw and 26% to the away win.[^fact-2] Markets were compared across three distinct lines to reach this conclusion.[^fact-10] The clearest edges arise where market odds underweight San Jose’s combined statistical footprint: the Elo advantage of +110 points, San Jose’s superior goals-per-game and points-per-game figures, and the recent scoring run from Preston Judd all stack in the same direction.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6] Conversely, the model treats LA Galaxy’s recent lower goals output and inferior points-per-game as limiting factors even with Gabriel Pec’s higher average rating over his last appearances.[^fact-5][^fact-7] That combination produces the model’s relatively modest 26% away probability despite a dangerous in-form performer on the flanks for LA.[^fact-7][^fact-2] Those are the primary model-market matchups: San Jose’s aggregate profile (form, scoring and Elo) versus market lines seen across the three compared markets.[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-10] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side: San Jose carry better recent underlying numbers, a clear Elo cushion and a pronounced scoring vein from Preston Judd, while LA’s output and defensive availability present constraints; the model puts San Jose at 51%, draw 23% and LA 26%.[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-9][^fact-2] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 23% / Away 26% (source: odds; confidence high, 25 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SJE vs LAG — Elo differential +110 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SJE recent form** — LWLLD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 2.40 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LAG recent form** — LLDWL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SJE in-form player** — Preston Judd — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-7]: **LAG in-form player** — Gabriel Pec — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.88. [^fact-8]: **SJE key absence** — Timo Werner out (injury), 330 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **LAG key absence** — Julián Aude out (injury), 73 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .