# Auckland vs Tottenham Hotspur > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37151) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Auckland 0–2 Tottenham Hotspur ## Model verdict - **Auckland win:** 23% - **Draw:** 16% - **Tottenham Hotspur win:** 62% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tottenham clear favourites despite Solanke absence in friendly test ## The stage This Club Friendlies fixture kicks off Sun 26 Jul 2026 at 03:00 UTC, listed as Club Friendlies 1 in the schedule[^fact-1]. The match functions as a preparatory outing rather than a competitive point on a league table; emphasis for both sides is on rhythm, minutes and conditioning[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model assigns a strong away tilt: Home 23% / Draw 16% / Away 62%, with a high-confidence 39 percentage-point gap to the runner-up in its ranking of outcomes[^fact-2]. On Elo, the applied home advantage still leaves Auckland behind: an Elo differential of −16 points versus Tottenham after home adjustments[^fact-3]. Tottenham’s recent run reads WWLDW across the last ten results (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats as listed), delivering 1.50 points per game and averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Those numbers portray a side producing marginally more points than a neutral baseline while remaining vulnerable at the back to an extent that keeps goal expectation modest rather than booming[^fact-4]. ## Personnel Tottenham’s in-form attacking outlet flagged by the model is Richarlison: two goals, zero assists across his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 6.90 over that stretch[^fact-6]. The deepest personnel caveat on Tottenham’s side is the absence of Dominic Solanke through injury, a player who accumulated 446 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out[^fact-7]. The numerical weight of those minutes suggests a non-trivial loss of established minutes and familiarity within Tottenham’s forward rotation[^fact-7]. The structured facts do not provide equivalent individual data for Auckland, so assessment remains Tottenham-centric on personnel dynamics[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across three instruments; the model highlights one clear edge with substantive confidence[^fact-8]. The top value signal is on Under 2.5 goals: the model places probability at 54% versus a market price implying lower probability (Betfair listed at 3.25), producing an edge of 23.6 percentage points according to the model’s estimate[^fact-5]. That sits alongside the broad model verdict that disproportionately favours the away side (Away 62%) and an Elo gap of −16 in Auckland’s favour after home advantage adjustments, which together argue for a match with controlled scoring rather than open routs[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The markets analysed number confirms this is drawn from a compact cross-check of three markets against the model’s priors[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the away side, with an Away probability of 62% and a high-confidence margin to the next outcome, while the sub-2.5 goals projection (54% model probability) offers the clearest market edge versus Betfair pricing[^fact-2][^fact-5]. Factoring the −16 Elo differential and Tottenham’s recent output of 1.00 goals for and 1.10 against per match, the expected shape is an away-led tie with modest scoring rather than a high-scoring exhibition; the absence of Dominic Solanke is the main attacking caveat for the visitors, while Richarlison provides the most visible forward form note in the available data[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 23% / Draw 16% / Away 62% (source: model; confidence high, 39 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Auckland vs TOT — Elo differential -16 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TOT recent form** — WWLDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 23.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **TOT in-form player** — Richarlison — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-7]: **TOT key absence** — Dominic Solanke out (injury), 446 minutes in recent run. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .