# Auckland vs Tottenham Hotspur > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37151) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Auckland win:** 23% - **Draw:** 16% - **Tottenham Hotspur win:** 62% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 3.25 | Betfair | 54% | +23.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tottenham Market Heavyweights; Under 2.5 Looks Best Value ## The stage This is a summer friendly on Sun 26 Jul 2026 with a 03:00 UTC kickoff in the Club Friendlies 1 window[^fact-1]. The fixture pits Auckland against Tottenham Hotspur — a mismatch on paper according to the modelling and market work that underpins this preview[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Tottenham enter having produced a mixed but unbeaten-leaning block: WWLDW across the last 10 matches, recorded as a 4-3-3 split of wins, draws and losses, yielding 1.50 points per game and an average of 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The model gives the away side a dominant probability share: 76% for an away win, versus 11% for the home side and 13% for a draw — a 63 percentage-point lead over the runner-up and explicit confidence baked into the projection[^fact-2]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, sits at -16 in favour of Tottenham, a clear but not colossal rating gap to set expectations for control rather than rout[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Tottenham’s attacking shape in recent outings has leaned on Richarlison, who carries two goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.90 in that same window[^fact-6]. The forward corps is missing Dominic Solanke, sidelined with injury and absent for 446 minutes in the club’s recent run — a notable availability hole in finishing options[^fact-7]. The available data does not supply named in-form or absent players for Auckland; focus therefore stays on Tottenham’s personnel signals, where Richarlison provides the clearest short-term form read[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared to the model across three different books or market points[^fact-8]. The strongest single edge identified is the low-goal outcome: Under 2.5 goals is flagged by the model at a 54% probability versus a market price of 3.25 on Betfair, creating an edge of 23.6 percentage points in the model’s view — an outcome described with high confidence[^fact-5]. That valuation sits logically with Tottenham’s recent per-match scoring and conceding profile (1.00 scored / 1.10 conceded) and the modest Elo gap, which suggests control without guaranteed goal glut[^fact-4][^fact-3]. The markets analysed number confirms a limited universe of checks — three markets in total — so the listed edge is concentrated but not exhaustively cross-checked across an extended market set[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily towards an away win at 76%, with Auckland and the draw trailing at 11% and 13% respectively; the combined signals — Elo, recent Tottenham form, the Richarlison scoring touch and Solanke’s absence — paint a picture of a Tottenham side likely to control without necessarily turning this into a high-scoring affair, which is why the under-2.5 angle registers as the clearest discrepancy versus the market[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 13% / Away 76% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Auckland vs TOT — Elo differential -16 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TOT recent form** — WWLDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 23.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **TOT in-form player** — Richarlison — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-7]: **TOT key absence** — Dominic Solanke out (injury), 446 minutes in recent run. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .