# FC Dordrecht vs Feyenoord > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 4 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37212) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Dordrecht 0–6 Feyenoord ## Model verdict - **FC Dordrecht win:** 9% - **Draw:** 12% - **Feyenoord win:** 79% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy model tilt, under 2.5 and away on clear edges ## The stage This is a mid-summer club friendly scheduled for Sat 4 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC as part of Club Friendlies 1[^fact-1]. The game is a low-stakes runout on paper, but the numbers treat it as a meaningful mismatch — useful for assessing tactical tweaks and minutes allocation ahead of competitive football[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model hands a decisive advantage to the visitors: Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 79%[^fact-2]. That confidence is not marginal — the model reports a 67 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, underlining how lopsided the projection is[^fact-2]. The raw Elo differential with home advantage applied sits at -130 points for the hosts, signalling a substantial class gap between the sides[^fact-3]. Recent output for the away side shows a thread of consistency: WDWWD across the last ten matches, a 4-5-1 split (W-D-L), and 1.70 points per game; that sequence comes with 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Those per-game figures align with the model’s strong away probability and suggest Feyenoord arrive in controlled enough form to be favoured[^fact-4]. ## Personnel On the attacking front, the most in-form name to watch is Anis Hadj Moussa, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, and an average match rating of 7.25[^fact-7]. For Feyenoord there is a notable absence: Ayase Ueda is out injured after contributing 761 minutes in the recent run, meaning the side will be without a player who played substantial minutes[^fact-9]. For the hosts, the clearest personnel setback is the injury absence of Joey de Bie[^fact-8]. No additional squad details are supplied, so minute-by-minute selection implications cannot be asserted beyond those confirmed absences[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across 3 market(s)[^fact-10]. Two specific value calls emerge from that analysis. First, the model finds value on Under 2.5 goals: the model probability is 54% versus the market price at 2.50 on bet365, producing an edge of 14.4 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-5]. Second, the match-winner market flags the away side as a value: the model has Away at 78% while MelBet prices the away outcome at 1.49, yielding an 11.3 percentage-point edge and again high confidence[^fact-6]. Those two points tell a consistent story: a strong favourite in form and rating, combined with modest recent scoring lines, produces a projection for a controlled away performance rather than a wild-scoring contest[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2]. The Under 2.5 projection sits at a narrow majority (54%) but is the single market where the model says expected returns diverge materially from public pricing, per the analysis across the compared markets[^fact-5][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the away side — 79% probability — supported by a -130 Elo gap with home advantage applied and recent away form that reads as efficient rather than explosive[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Given the flagged absences and the model’s specific market edges on Under 2.5 goals and the away match-winner, the clearest narrative is for Feyenoord to control the contest without it becoming high scoring[^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 4 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 79% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DOR vs FEY — Elo differential -130 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FEY recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.50 at bet365, edge 14.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.49 at MelBet, edge 11.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **FEY in-form player** — Anis Hadj Moussa — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-8]: **DOR key absence** — Joey de Bie out (injury). [^fact-9]: **FEY key absence** — Ayase Ueda out (injury), 761 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .