# Feyenoord vs Club Brugge > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37213) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Feyenoord 3–1 Club Brugge ## Model verdict - **Feyenoord win:** 32% - **Draw:** 22% - **Club Brugge win:** 46% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side favoured as goals look likely in summer friendly ## The stage This is a summer friendly scheduled for kickoff on Sat 11 Jul 2026 at 10:00 UTC, listed under Club Friendlies 1[^fact-1]. The match functions as a high-profile warm-up rather than a competitive tie with standings implications; the model treats it as a discrete fixture with probabilistic outcomes rather than league consequences[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form runs clearly in one direction. Feyenoord have produced a WWDWW sequence in their last 10 recorded results, translating to 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats, with an average of 2.00 points per game and 2.10 goals scored versus 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Club Brugge arrive hotter: WDWWW — 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 10 — yielding 2.50 points per game and 3.20 goals scored while also conceding 0.90 per match[^fact-5]. The model gives the away side the edge: an overall match probability of Away 46% against Home 32% and Draw 22%, with the model’s confidence rated mid and a 14 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. An Elo adjustment implemented with home advantage still leaves Feyenoord trailing by 18 points in the head-to-head differential used here[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Feyenoord’s most notable current contributor by the supplied metrics is Oussama Targhalline, who has recorded 0 goals and 3 assists across his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.35 in that sample[^fact-8]. Their clearest listed absence is Ayase Ueda, out injured after contributing 700 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. For Club Brugge, Christos Tzolis is the standout form player with 4 goals and 7 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 8.91[^fact-9]. Brugge’s stated injury absence is goalkeeper Nordin Jackers, who is also unavailable after 380 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. These are the only named player form and unavailability figures provided for either side in the structured facts[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Two market edges surface strongly when the model is compared to quoted market prices. First, the model assigns a 75% probability to Over 2.5 goals, while Marathonbet’s market price for that market is 1.68, producing an implied model–market edge of 15.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model gives a 74% probability to Both Teams to Score = Yes, versus Marathonbet’s price of 1.60, yielding an 11.5 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. The analysis compared three market lines against the model in total[^fact-12]. Both edges align with the teams’ recent scoring profiles: each side has been averaging multiple goals or strong attacking output in the supplied samples, and both concede at a rate of 0.90 per match in those samples[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans toward an away victory while flagging a high likelihood of a goal-heavy, both-teams-score outcome: Away 46% / Draw 22% / Home 32% with the model’s mid confidence and a clear gap to the runner-up[^fact-2], supported by an Elo shortfall of 18 points for the home side after home advantage is applied[^fact-3], and reinforced by the model’s strong probabilities for Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score against Marathonbet prices[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 32% / Draw 22% / Away 46% (source: model; confidence mid, 14 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FEY vs BRU — Elo differential -18 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FEY recent form** — WWDWW last 10: 5-5-0 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BRU recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 3.20 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 75% vs market price 1.68 at Marathonbet, edge 15.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 74% vs market price 1.60 at Marathonbet, edge 11.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **FEY in-form player** — Oussama Targhalline — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.35. [^fact-9]: **BRU in-form player** — Christos Tzolis — 4 goals, 7 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.91. [^fact-10]: **FEY key absence** — Ayase Ueda out (injury), 700 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **BRU key absence** — Nordin Jackers out (injury), 380 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .