# Feyenoord vs Sporting Charleroi > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37214) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Feyenoord 3–1 Sporting Charleroi ## Model verdict - **Feyenoord win:** 74% - **Draw:** 15% - **Sporting Charleroi win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Elo gap and a clear model lean ahead of kickoff ## The stage This friendly acts as an early-season measuring stick between Feyenoord[^fact-3] and Sporting Charleroi[^fact-3], kicking off on Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match carries the low-stakes framing of a club friendly while offering live evidence for model and market comparisons[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum Feyenoord arrive with a run that reads WWWDW over the last 10 matches, listed as 6-4-0 (W-D-L), averaging 2.20 points per game and scoring 2.10 while conceding 0.70 per match[^fact-4]. Sporting Charleroi’s sequence is WDLWW, recorded as 5-2-3 (W-D-L), with 1.70 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model gives a decisive edge to the home side — a 74% probability for a Feyenoord win, versus 15% for a draw and 10% for an away win — a 59 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and classed as high confidence[^fact-2]. That quantitative hierarchy is mirrored by a substantial Elo differential of +307 points in Feyenoord’s favour (already adjusted for home advantage)[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Feyenoord’s most in-form attacking contributor in recent outings is Anis Hadj Moussa, with 3 goals and 0 assists across his last 3 appearances and an average rating of 7.64[^fact-7]. The notable absence for Feyenoord is Ayase Ueda, sidelined with injury after 614 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. Sporting Charleroi’s bright spot is Aurélien Scheidler, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.00[^fact-8]. Charleroi will also be missing Yassine Titraoui, unavailable through injury after contributing 537 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities translate into market edges. The standout value pick identified is Home in Match Winner — model 75% versus a market price of 1.42 at 1xbet, producing an edge of 5.0 percentage points and rated at mid confidence[^fact-6]. The model summary compares three markets against its projections in total[^fact-11], and the Home match-winner line is the clearest mismatch between model and market in those comparisons[^fact-6]. Given the model’s 74% home probability and the specified 75% model figure for the market comparison, the quantitative signal for backing the home side is consistent across the model's outputs[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to Feyenoord, driven by a 74% match-win projection and a +307 Elo edge after home adjustment, with market analysis highlighting the home match-winner as the primary value line among three compared markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-11][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 15% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FEY vs SPC — Elo differential +307 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FEY recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SPC recent form** — WDLWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.42 at 1xbet, edge 5.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **FEY in-form player** — Anis Hadj Moussa — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-8]: **SPC in-form player** — Aurélien Scheidler — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.00. [^fact-9]: **FEY key absence** — Ayase Ueda out (injury), 614 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 537 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .