# Almería vs Castellón > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Tue 9 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37218) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Almería 3–2 Castellón ## Model verdict - **Almería win:** 60% - **Draw:** 27% - **Castellón win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home favourite backed by Elo edge and goal value ## The stage This is a La Liga 2 fixture kicking off Tue 9 Jun 2026 at 19:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not include the stadium or broader table context, so the focus here is strictly on the model inputs and market edges supplied[^fact-10]. ## Form & momentum The model makes a clear call: home 60% / draw 27% / away 13%, a home-leaning verdict with a 33 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up prediction[^fact-2]. That aligns with a substantive Elo advantage — Almería hold a +111-point edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent results tell a more nuanced story. Almería have a 5-2-3 record in their last 10 and are averaging 1.70 points per game, scoring 1.80 and conceding 1.80 per match[^fact-4]. Castellón have a slightly stronger recent points return with a 5-4-1 record in their last 10 and 1.90 points per game; they average 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Put simply: the model favours the home side on rating and probability, but Castellón bring an efficient recent points return and a lower goals-against figure[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Almería’s most notable form player in the supplied facts is Sergio Arribas: two goals, zero assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.24[^fact-8]. Castellón’s in-form name in the dataset is Álex Calatrava: one goal, one assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.74[^fact-9]. The supplied facts do not list any absences, suspensions, or lineup confirmations, so analysis must proceed without squad-level availability details[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights two clear market edges. First, Over 2.5 goals is modelled at 78% probability versus a market price of 1.65 at bet365, an edge of 16.9 percentage points and described with high confidence in the supplied facts[^fact-6]. Second, Both Teams to Score (Yes) is modelled at 76% versus the market price 1.53 at bet365, an edge of 10.3 percentage points and also flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Those two value signals are consistent with the underlying team numbers in the supplied facts: both teams average 1.80 goals scored in recent form metrics, and Almería concede at 1.80 while Castellón concede at 1.30, a combination that supports frequent scoring from both sides[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The Elo and model probabilities favour the home side decisively, but the goal and BTTS edges suggest the encounter is expected to be open rather than a low-scoring home shutout given the teams’ recent goal outputs[^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Three markets were compared against the model in the supplied facts, and these two picks are presented with high confidence within that set[^fact-10][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans clearly to the home side (60% home probability) supported by a +111 Elo differential, but the match profile implied by recent scoring numbers and the model’s value signals favours an open game: Over 2.5 goals (model 78%) and Both Teams to Score (model 76%) show the strongest edges versus market prices in the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Tue 9 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 27% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ALM vs Castellón — Elo differential +111 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ALM recent form** — DWLLD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Castellón recent form** — DWWDD last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 78% vs market price 1.65 at bet365, edge 16.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 76% vs market price 1.53 at bet365, edge 10.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ALM in-form player** — Sergio Arribas — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-9]: **Castellón in-form player** — Álex Calatrava — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.74. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .