# Málaga vs Almería > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 14 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37220) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Málaga 0–0 Almería ## Model verdict - **Málaga win:** 51% - **Draw:** 28% - **Almería win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model edges home side as goals look likely in Saturday night clash ## The stage This fixture kicks off Sun 14 Jun 2026 at 19:00 UTC in La Liga 2, a match that sits squarely within the closing run of the campaign and into the high-leverage part of the calendar for both sides[^fact-1]. The model gives the home side the narrow advantage, projecting Home 51% / Draw 28% / Away 21% as the pre-match probabilities[^fact-2]. The Elo framework, with home advantage already applied, shows a clear superiority for the home team: an Elo differential of +148 points in their favour[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent form suggests two teams on different trajectories, but both with goal involvement. The home side arrive in a sequence recorded as DWWDW across their last 10 matches, translating into 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, a points-per-game rate of 2.00 and averages of 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last-10 line reads WDWLL, equating to 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with a 1.70 PPG profile and 1.90 goals scored and conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers show the hosts produce more goals on average while the visitors are tighter defensively in raw conceded-per-game parity, but the Elo edge and the model probabilities still tilt to the home side[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The attacking form stories are straightforward. Chupe is the in-form focal point for the hosts, with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.61 across that span[^fact-7]. For the visitors, Adrián Embarba carries form, returning 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.47[^fact-8]. On the availability front, the hosts will be missing Juanpe due to injury; his recent run amounted to 48 minutes before that absence[^fact-9]. Those personnel notes matter because the hosts’ goals per game and recent attacking returns are concentrated around known performers[^fact-4][^fact-7], while the visitors still possess a capable outlet in Embarba[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market inefficiency identified by the model is in the Both Teams to Score market. The model projects Yes at 79% probability versus a market price implied by WilliamHill at 1.70, implying an edge of 20.1 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That selection aligns with the empirical scoring lines: the home side average 2.10 goals per match through their recent run and the visitors average 1.90 goals per match in the same window, numbers that support a high likelihood of both sides finding the net[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The analysis compared three market offerings against the model’s output before isolating this edge[^fact-10]. Additional contextual points: the model’s overall match probabilities — a 51% home chance — sit on a substantial confidence cushion (the model reports a 23 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome), reinforcing the tilt toward the hosts rather than a pure coin-flip[^fact-2]. The +148 Elo differential with home advantage applied is a significant structural advantage that helps explain the model lean despite the visitors’ recent goal numbers[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side (51% probability) on the back of a sizable Elo advantage and stronger recent PPG and goals-scored metrics, while the market shows a notable mispricing in Both Teams to Score where the model assigns a 79% chance compared with WilliamHill’s 1.70/market line[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 14 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 28% / Away 21% (source: model; confidence high, 23 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MLA vs ALM — Elo differential +148 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MLA recent form** — DWWDW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALM recent form** — WDWLL last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 79% vs market price 1.70 at WilliamHill, edge 20.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **MLA in-form player** — Chupe — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.61. [^fact-8]: **ALM in-form player** — Adrián Embarba — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.47. [^fact-9]: **MLA key absence** — Juanpe out (injury), 48 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .