# Liverpool vs Como > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37225) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 55% - **Draw:** 30% - **Como win:** 15% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home favourites carry Elo edge against in-form visitors ## The stage This friendly lands on Sun 16 Aug 2026 with a 17:00 UTC kickoff in the Club Friendlies 1 slot[^fact-1]. The fixture is a one-off preparation test rather than a competitive tie; the single listed match time and competition tag frame expectations for experimentation and rotation[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On raw model probabilities, the home side is projected as the most likely outcome at 55%, with a draw at 30% and the away win at 15% — the model flags a clear lead and a 25 percentage-point gap to the runner-up scenario, signalling high confidence in that lean[^fact-2]. That aligns with an Elo differential of +64 in favour of the home side after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent results complicate the picture. The nominal home side has produced WDLDL over the last 10, a 4-2-4 split equating to 1.40 points per game, averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visiting side arrive with a better recent string, WWWDW in their last 10 — a 5-2-3 record yielding 1.70 points per game, with 1.90 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Put simply: Elo and model probability favour the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2], but the away team’s recent form and defensive numbers present a counterargument on current momentum[^fact-5]. ## Personnel Two individual form narratives stand out. Dominik Szoboszlai is the clearest creative force for the home side, with 2 goals and 4 assists across his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.83[^fact-6]. For the visitors, Lucas Da Cunha has delivered 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings with a 7.58 average rating[^fact-7]. Those figures identify both players as central attacking outlets in recent weeks[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Availability clouds each team. The hosts will be without Giorgi Mamardashvili due to injury; he logged 598 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence[^fact-8]. The visitors are missing Máximo Perrone through injury as well; Perrone accounted for 780 minutes in his recent appearances before the layoff[^fact-9]. Those absences remove consistent minutes from both squads and shift how rotation and trial selections might be used in a friendly context[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model comparison versus market pricing was performed across 2 markets[^fact-10]. The model’s primary edge is its 55% lean to the home outcome versus a more conservative market signal implied by the markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-10]. The model also highlights the away side’s strong form and superior recent defensive output — 1.00 goals conceded per match over the last 10 — as the principal reason the draw probability remains non-trivial at 30%[^fact-5][^fact-2]. No external market odds are provided in the supplied facts, so the precise numerical price differentials cannot be stated here; the only documented comparison is that two markets were analysed against the model’s output[^fact-10]. Readers should treat the model’s 25 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up as the chief signal of conviction when weighing any observed market flyers against that stance[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side (55%) backed by a +64 Elo cushion, but the visitors’ stronger recent form and single-goal defensive average complicate the picture; absences on both sides and the friendly context make this a controlled trial more than a definitive statement[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 55% / Draw 30% / Away 15% (source: model; confidence high, 25 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs COM — Elo differential +64 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — WDLDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COM recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.83. [^fact-7]: **COM in-form player** — Lucas Da Cunha  — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.58. [^fact-8]: **LIV key absence** — Giorgi Mamardashvili out (injury), 598 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **COM key absence** — Máximo Perrone out (injury), 780 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .