# Viborg FF vs Odense BK > Superliga · Kickoff Fri 24 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37226) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Viborg FF 1–0 Odense BK ## Model verdict - **Viborg FF win:** 78% - **Draw:** 13% - **Odense BK win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model makes Viborg clear favourites with a large Elo edge ## The stage This is a Friday Superliga fixture with kickoff scheduled for Fri 24 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match status is straightforward: a regular-season Superliga game where the pre-match framing hinges on model probabilities and a substantial Elo differential rather than any single late-season storyline[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum The model hands a pronounced probability split: Home 78% / Draw 13% / Away 9%, a skew that reflects both recent form and rating differentials[^fact-2]. That projection sits on top of an Elo edge of +202 points for the home side after home advantage is applied, a margin large enough to explain the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Reading the short-term records, the home side’s last 10 matches read LLDWL — three wins, two draws, five losses — producing 1.10 points per game and an attacking/defensive output of 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last 10 are LDLWL — four wins, two draws, four losses — producing 1.40 points per game and 1.50 goals scored against 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw form numbers show the visitors slightly more consistent on points per game and marginally better defensive balance, but the Elo differential and model probability favour the home side decisively[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Key in-form figures to watch are Asker Beck for the home side (2 goals, 0 assists in his last five appearances; average rating 6.74) and Fiete Arp for the visitors (2 goals, 1 assist in his last five appearances; average rating 7.51)[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Both profiles suggest recent attacking returns, with Arp carrying the higher recent match rating among the two named performers[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Availability concerns alter the puzzle: the hosts will be without Mads Søndergaard due to injury; he logged 432 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. The visitors are missing Viljar Myhra through suspension, a player who had accumulated 749 minutes in the same recent run before being sidelined[^fact-10]. Those absences remove continuity minutes from both sides and are notable because the two names are the only specified personnel changes in the supplied facts[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s top market edge identified in the supplied analysis is Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.90 at bwin, yielding an edge of 24.2 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That single-market comparison is one of three markets analysed against the model in the supplied dataset, indicating the stated value opportunity sits inside a small but focused market review[^fact-6][^fact-11]. The combination of a 78% model probability for the home side and a +202 Elo differential underpins why the home match-winner ticket emerges as the primary market discrepancy in the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The market price cited (1.90 at bwin) is the concrete quoted line used to calculate the 24.2 percentage-point edge in the supplied value pick[^fact-6]. No other market numbers or odds were provided in the facts, so the emphasis rests on that single, model-backed market comparison[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the home side: a dominant home probability, a +202 Elo edge, and a clear single-market value call for the home match-winner form the spine of the preview, tempered only by the visitors’ slightly better short-term points-per-game and the absence of two recently-used players on opposite sides[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 24 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 13% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 65 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — VFF vs ODE — Elo differential +202 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **VFF recent form** — LLDWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ODE recent form** — LDLWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.90 at bwin, edge 24.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **VFF in-form player** — Asker Beck — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.74. [^fact-8]: **ODE in-form player** — Fiete Arp — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.51. [^fact-9]: **VFF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 432 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **ODE key absence** — Viljar Myhra out (suspension), 749 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .