# Horsens vs Nordsjælland > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37230) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Horsens 1–1 Nordsjælland ## Model verdict - **Horsens win:** 11% - **Draw:** 23% - **Nordsjælland win:** 67% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Nordsjælland heavy favourites as Horsens face uphill task ## The stage Superliga action arrives on Sun 26 Jul 2026 at 16:00 UTC, when Horsens host Nordsjælland. [^fact-1] This is a fixture that reads like a classic David-and-Goliath billing on paper: the model puts the home side at 11% while the draw sits at 23% and the away side is a clear 67%. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences underline why the market and model lean so hard. Horsens arrive with a run that, over the last 10 results, reads DLLLL and yields just 0.50 points per game; their goal output and concession rate are 0.70 scored and 2.10 conceded per match respectively. [^fact-4] Nordsjælland, by contrast, have been far steadier: WDDLD in their last 10, returning 1.90 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and only 0.70 conceded per outing. [^fact-5] The quantitative gap is reinforced by Elo: with home advantage applied, the differential sits at minus 198 in favour of Nordsjælland, a wide margin on the Elo scale. [^fact-3] Those two numbers—Elo and recent-performances—converge on the picture of an away side in control and a home side struggling to keep matches close. ## Personnel Horsens’ most notable in-form contributor is Anders Jacobsen, who has provided two assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.85 over that span. [^fact-7] The absence of Patrick Olsen through injury looms as the clearest personnel blow for Horsens ahead of the clash. [^fact-9] Nordsjælland’s midfield creativity has been channelled in recent weeks through Mark Brink, who has three assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.18. [^fact-8] Nordsjælland will also be missing Ola Solbakken due to injury, a named absence that should alter attacking permutations. [^fact-10] Both sides therefore carry a defined recent-impact player plus a named absentee; the balance of quality and recent output, however, favours Nordsjælland when the metrics above are layered together. [^fact-7] [^fact-8] [^fact-9] [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model flags a single, clear market edge versus available prices: the Under 2.5 goals line. Model probability for Under 2.5 sits at 54% against a market-implied price of 2.28 at Unibet, producing an edge of 10.5 percentage points and a high confidence flag. [^fact-6] That view is consistent with two inputs: Horsens’ heavy conceding rate (2.10 goals conceded per match) paired with Nordsjælland’s low concession rate (0.70 per match) yields an expectation of a match where one side controls tempo while the other struggles to score freely, which can compress total goals. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] Markets compared against the model in this pre-match file total three. [^fact-11] The strongest model/market divergence sits on the goals market; other standard markets were reviewed but did not generate similarly large edges. [^fact-6] [^fact-11] ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side: Nordsjælland are projected at 67% while Horsens sit at 11%, supported by a −198 Elo gap and contrasting recent form. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] The standout market discrepancy is Under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 54% probability diverges meaningfully from the market price. [^fact-6] This is a contest that, according to the numbers, should tilt towards controlled away dominance rather than an open, high-scoring encounter. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] [^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 23% / Away 67% (source: model; confidence high, 44 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ACH vs FCN — Elo differential -198 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ACH recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 1-2-7 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCN recent form** — WDDLD last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.28 at Unibet, edge 10.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ACH in-form player** — Anders Jacobsen — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-8]: **FCN in-form player** — Mark Brink — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.18. [^fact-9]: **ACH key absence** — Patrick Olsen out (injury). [^fact-10]: **FCN key absence** — Ola Solbakken out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .