# FC København vs Lyngby Boldklub > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37231) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC København 3–2 Lyngby Boldklub ## Model verdict - **FC København win:** 75% - **Draw:** 15% - **Lyngby Boldklub win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge as Copenhagen chases statement Superliga win ## The stage This is a Superliga fixture kicking off on Sun 26 Jul 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with Copenhagen the home side on paper and hosting expectations tilted towards them[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The match sits early in the domestic season calendar and will be judged as a chance for Copenhagen to consolidate momentum while Lyngby must arrest a patchy run[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Copenhagen arrive in visibly stronger form: an eight-win, one-draw, one-loss return over the last 10 matches, producing 2.50 points per game, scoring 3.40 goals and conceding 0.90 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Lyngby’s recent sequence paints a different picture — two wins, three draws and five defeats in their last 10, worth 0.90 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo gap — already adjusted for home advantage — is striking at +409 points in favour of Copenhagen, underscoring the quality differential the numbers see[^fact-3]. The model further quantifies the balance: a 75% probability for a home win, 15% for a draw and 10% for an away win, with the model reporting high confidence and a wide 60 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Copenhagen’s chief attacking spark in recent weeks has been Jordan Larsson, who has four goals and four assists across his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.80 in that mini-run[^fact-8]. The side will, however, be without Mohamed Elyounoussi due to injury; Elyounoussi played 794 minutes in the recent spell before his absence was recorded[^fact-10]. That loss removes a significant chunk of recent minutes from Copenhagen’s lineup but does not erase their current attacking rhythm[^fact-8][^fact-10]. Lyngby’s clearest form bright spot is Sævar Atli Magnússon, who has one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.48 across those games[^fact-9]. Lyngby will be missing Oskar Snorre Olsen through injury for this match, a named absence that narrows their options[^fact-11]. Given the underlying team form and the personnel notes, the contest reads as a meeting of a hot, deep Copenhagen attack and a Lyngby side carrying fewer positive indicators in recent minutes[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model for edges[^fact-12]. The highest-confidence value appears on goals: the model gives Under 2.5 goals a 54% probability while Pinnacle offers the market price of 2.93, producing an edge of 20.3 percentage points in the model’s view (labelled high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-12]. The second identified edge sits in the match-winner market: the model’s probability for a home win is 78% against an Interwetten price of 1.43, an edge of 7.9 percentage points with mid confidence noted[^fact-7][^fact-12]. Both edges reflect different stories — the Under 2.5 angle trusts defensive solidity or a low-scoring outcome despite Copenhagen’s recent scoring, while the home match-winner edge leans on Copenhagen’s Elo advantage, recent output and the model’s strong home projection[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The market sample behind these conclusions consists of three markets compared to the model[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively towards a Copenhagen victory, assigning a 75% probability to the home side with a clear Elo cushion of +409 points and noticeably better recent form and per-game returns[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The combined personnel picture — Larsson’s recent form offset by Elyounoussi’s absence — and Lyngby’s weaker form and named injury combine to reinforce that home tilt[^fact-8][^fact-10][^fact-9][^fact-5]. The model also highlights two market edges worth attention: Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs Pinnacle 2.93) and Home match winner (model 78% vs Interwetten 1.43), with differing confidence levels attached[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 75% / Draw 15% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 60 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COP vs LBB — Elo differential +409 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COP recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 3.40 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LBB recent form** — WLLDW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.93 at Pinnacle, edge 20.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.43 at Interwetten, edge 7.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **COP in-form player** — Jordan Larsson — 4 goals, 4 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.80. [^fact-9]: **LBB in-form player** — Sævar Atli Magnússon  — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.48. [^fact-10]: **COP key absence** — Mohamed Elyounoussi out (injury), 794 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **LBB key absence** — Oskar Snorre Olsen out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .