# Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37243) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 67% - **Draw:** 20% - **Wisła Płock win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.63 | Dafabet | 71% | +10.1 pp | | btts | No | 1.80 | 10Bet | 63% | +7.8 pp | | totals | Under | 1.90 | Pinnacle | 56% | +3.3 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Raków’s clear statistical edge, model backs home dominance ## The stage This Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off Sun 26 Jul 2026 at 12:45 UTC, a season-opening fixture that the model grades decisively in favour of the home side[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The numbers below are built exclusively from the supplied model, Elo and market comparisons; no outside figures have been introduced[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-13]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines make the gap concrete. Raków’s ten-match sequence reads DWWLW (5-4-1 W-D-L), producing 1.90 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded on average[^fact-4]. Wisła Płock’s ten-match sequence is far less encouraging at DLLLL (4-1-5 W-D-L), yielding 1.30 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential — already adjusted for home advantage — gives Raków a 312-point edge, reinforcing the model’s tilt toward the hosts[^fact-3]. The model’s pre-match probabilities are Home 67% / Draw 20% / Away 12%, underlining how consensus and ratings align on a clear favourite[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Raków’s attacking form is concentrated around Jean Carlos Silva, who has 2 goals and 4 assists in his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.60 across that run[^fact-9]. His recent production is a principal driver of Raków’s 1.90 goals-per-game figure over the last ten matches[^fact-4][^fact-9]. On the other side, Wisła Płock’s most notable recent contributor is Marcin Kaminski, with 1 goal in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.80 over that span[^fact-10]. Availability concerns also matter: Raków will be missing Fran Tudor through injury, a player who logged 494 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Wisła Płock’s notable absentee is Iban Salvador, currently out with an injury after 11 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. These absences frame squad continuity questions for both teams while the scoring form clearly favours Raków[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model’s outputs[^fact-13]. First, the strongest edge is Home in Match Winner: the model assigns a 71% chance versus a market price implying lower probability at Dafabet 1.63, producing an edge of 10.1 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model prefers “No” on Both Teams to Score at 63% against a market price of 1.80 at 10Bet, an edge of 7.8 percentage points and mid-level confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model slightly leans to Under 2.5 goals with a 56% probability versus a market price of 1.90 at Pinnacle, an edge of 3.3 percentage points but with low confidence[^fact-8]. Each of these comparisons uses only the model probabilities and the named market prices presented; those three markets were the ones explicitly analysed here[^fact-13][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s output is unambiguous: a 67% probability on the home side, supported by a +312 Elo differential and superior recent attacking and defensive balance for Raków, while Wisła Płock’s metrics point to a fragile record and key absences[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-11][^fact-12]. Value lines identified by the model focus on the home match-winner and a no-goal-for-both outcome, with under 2.5 also favoured but with weaker confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 67% / Draw 20% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 47 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — RAK vs WPL — Elo differential +312 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **RAK recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WPL recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.63 at Dafabet, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 1.80 at 10Bet, edge 7.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 1.90 at Pinnacle, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **RAK in-form player** — Jean Carlos Silva — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.60. [^fact-10]: **WPL in-form player** — Marcin Kaminski — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-11]: **RAK key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **WPL key absence** — Iban Salvador out (injury), 11 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .