# Raków Częstochowa vs Wisła Płock > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37243) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 67% - **Draw:** 20% - **Wisła Płock win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.63 | Dafabet | 71% | +10.1 pp | | btts | No | 1.80 | 10Bet | 63% | +7.8 pp | | totals | Under | 1.90 | Pinnacle | 56% | +3.3 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Raków expected to control proceedings as market underestimates edge ## The stage Sunday’s kickoff is set for 12:45 UTC in an Ekstraklasa fixture on 26 July 2026[^fact-1]. Raków Częstochowa are the home side in this meeting[^fact-3]. The model places a clear pre-match hierarchy on the tie: Home 67% / Draw 20% / Away 12%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines underline the model’s hierarchy. Raków’s sequence reads DWWLW over the last 10 matches with a 5-4-1 record, producing 1.90 points per game and averaging 1.90 goals scored while conceding 1.00 per match[^fact-4]. Wisła Płock arrive with a poorer trajectory: DLLLL in their last 10 for a 4-1-5 record, 1.30 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-5]. The gap is reinforced by an Elo differential that favors the home side by +312 points after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. That magnitude of Elo edge maps cleanly onto the model’s probability split and explains why the model’s confidence is relatively high, with a 47 percentage-point margin to the nearest runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel The most influential attacking rhythm for Raków is carried by Jean Carlos Silva, who has 2 goals and 4 assists in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.60[^fact-9]. On the other flank of the contest, Wisła Płock’s leading recent contributor is Marcin Kaminski, with 1 goal in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.80[^fact-10]. Availability will matter: Raków will be without Fran Tudor due to injury after he clocked 494 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Wisła Płock will be missing Iban Salvador through injury; his involvement over the recent run was 11 minutes[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed by the model against prevailing prices[^fact-13], producing ranked edges. - Value pick #1 — Home in Match Winner: the model assigns a 71% probability while Dafabet offers 1.63, producing an edge of 10.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Value pick #2 — Both Teams to Score: the model favours "No" at 63% versus a market price of 1.80 at 10Bet, an edge of 7.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. - Value pick #3 — Goals Under 2.5: the model gives a 56% chance while Pinnacle quotes 1.90, an edge of 3.3 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three edges map to the underlying data: Raków’s higher goals-for rate and superior Elo make them the likeliest winners, while both teams scoring is downgraded by Wisła Płock’s lower attacking output and higher concession rate[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. The model’s assessment of market value concentrates on the home match-winner line as the clearest divergence between model probability and public price[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward the home side, assigning Raków a 67% chance, with a draw at 20% and an away win at 12%[^fact-2]. The Elo gap of +312 points, Raków’s superior recent form and attacking influence from Jean Carlos Silva, plus the market comparisons, all push the needle toward a comfortable home favourite on this afternoon fixture[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 67% / Draw 20% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 47 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — RAK vs WPL — Elo differential +312 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **RAK recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WPL recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.63 at Dafabet, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 1.80 at 10Bet, edge 7.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 1.90 at Pinnacle, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **RAK in-form player** — Jean Carlos Silva — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.60. [^fact-10]: **WPL in-form player** — Marcin Kaminski — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-11]: **RAK key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **WPL key absence** — Iban Salvador out (injury), 11 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .