# Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Fri 24 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37245) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Radomiak Radom 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków ## Model verdict - **Radomiak Radom win:** 54% - **Draw:** 21% - **Wieczysta Kraków win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, caged game tipped as the smarter bet ## The stage An opening-weekend texture test for teams in the Ekstraklasa kicks off on Fri 24 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC, when Radomiak Radom face Wieczysta Kraków in a fixture that will read as an early season barometer for both sides[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Radomiak Radom arrive with a mixed ledger: LLDWW across their last 10 matches, producing a 3-3-4 (W-D-L) split, earning 1.20 points per game while scoring 1.20 goals and conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-4]. The model applies a clear edge to the home side — a 54% probability on the home win, with the next best outcome (draw) on 22% and the away win at 25% — a 29 percentage-point lead over the runner-up outcome that signals a confident lean[^fact-2]. That confidence is reinforced by the Elo differential, which gives Radomiak a +113-point advantage after home advantage is applied, an objective measure that points to a quality gap between the sides on matchday ratings[^fact-3]. Taken together, the recent results paint Radomiak as imperfect but favoured: defensive fragility (1.70 conceded) offsets the modest attacking return (1.20 scored), while model and Elo agree on a tangible edge for the hosts[^fact-4][^fact-2][^fact-3]. There are no supplied facts that quantify Wieczysta Kraków’s recent record in isolation; the available numbers therefore anchor the narrative to Radomiak’s form and the model’s comparative probabilities[^fact-4][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Spotlight falls on Elves Baldé for Radomiak Radom, who has delivered 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.06 across those outings — a productive patch that matters in tight games where moments swing outcomes[^fact-6]. The supplied facts do not list injuries, suspensions or other absences for either team, so matchday availability cannot be quantified here beyond the in-form player information provided[^fact-6]. When a single player's recent output is condensed into decisive contributions, the burden on teammates and structure increases; Radomiak’s modest goals-per-game figure suggests reliance on individuals like Baldé to tip close contests[^fact-4][^fact-6]. No further personnel numbers are available from the supplied facts to expand the dossier on Wieczysta Kraków. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model benchmarks, and the clearest edge sits with under 2.5 goals: the model assigns Under 2.5 a 54% probability while the market prices that line at 2.13 with the bookmaker Sbo, creating an edge of 7.4 percentage points for the model pick[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The model’s overall match probabilities — Home 54% / Draw 22% / Away 25% — align with a game that is likely to be narrowly decided rather than high-scoring, a view consistent with Radomiak’s 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match over their last 10 fixtures[^fact-2][^fact-4]. The Elo differential of +113 points in Radomiak’s favour further endorses a controlled home performance rather than an open shootout, which helps explain why the model favours Under 2.5 as the principal value angle[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Those are the three markets referenced in the analysis pipeline; the under 2.5 trade is the only one highlighted by the model with a stated edge versus the market in the supplied facts[^fact-7][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side with a 54% probability and corroborating Elo advantage of +113 points, while match traits and Radomiak’s recent 1.20 goals-for/1.70 goals-against profile point toward a low-scoring, tight contest; the clearest market edge identified is Under 2.5 goals, where the model shows a 54% chance versus a 2.13 market price (edge 7.4 pp)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 24 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 54% / Draw 22% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 29 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków — Elo differential +113 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Radomiak Radom recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.13 at Sbo, edge 7.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-6]: **Radomiak Radom in-form player** — Elves Baldé — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-7]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .