# Lausanne Sport vs Grasshopper > Super League · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37250) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Lausanne Sport 1–1 Grasshopper ## Model verdict - **Lausanne Sport win:** 57% - **Draw:** 21% - **Grasshopper win:** 22% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side favoured as low-scoring pattern persists this weekend ## The stage Kickoff is Sat 25 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC in the Super League[^fact-1]. Lausanne Sport are the designated home team in this fixture[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The match sits early in the campaign and the model gives a clear home tilt: 57% for the home win, 21% for a draw and 22% for the away win, with the model reporting high confidence and a 35 percentage-point gap to the next pick[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences suggest neither side arrives in sparkling form on results alone. Lausanne Sport have a run labelled LLLLW across their last ten showing 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses, collecting 0.90 points per game while scoring 1.10 and conceding 2.20 per match[^fact-4]. Grasshopper mirror the outcomes column at 3-0-7 in their last ten with a WWLLL run, 0.90 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo calculation applies a 114-point edge to the home side (home advantage already factored in), which is a meaningful quality gap in predictive terms[^fact-3]. Those three inputs — recent form, the underlying goals profile and the Elo edge — are why the model leans to the hosts rather than the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Lausanne’s most conspicuous in-form figure is Jamie Roche: two goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.12[^fact-7]. Grasshopper’s main recent contributor highlighted by data is Jonathan Asp Jensen with zero goals, two assists in his last four and an average rating of 6.70[^fact-8]. The absences to factor in are significant on both sides: Lausanne are without Kévin Mouanga through injury, a player who logged 797 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]; Grasshopper will be missing Michael Frey, who contributed 559 minutes in the same period[^fact-10]. Those absences remove minutes and continuity rather than isolated goal tallies, which helps explain both teams’ modest attacking outputs in recent matches[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy flagged by the model is on total goals. The model rates Under 2.5 goals at 52%, versus the market price set at 2.45 on Betfair, producing an edge of 11.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That signal aligns with the low goals scored and high goals conceded numbers for both sides in recent fixtures — Lausanne 1.10 scored and 2.20 conceded; Grasshopper 1.30 scored and 2.60 conceded — which together point to matches producing fewer finishes but not necessarily clean sheets for either side[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Three markets were analysed against the model for this game, with the Under 2.5 outcome showing the standout statistical edge[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is a home win at 57%, supported by a 114-point Elo advantage and the home factor baked into the projection; confidence is described as high with a 35-point gap to the runner-up pick[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Converging signals — modest recent scoring rates, heavy minutes lost to injuries, and the market’s relative underpricing of low totals — make the low-scoring outcome the clearest value signal in the model’s view[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 57% / Draw 21% / Away 22% (source: model; confidence high, 35 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LAU vs GRA — Elo differential +114 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LAU recent form** — LLLLW last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GRA recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 11.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **LAU in-form player** — Jamie Roche — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-8]: **GRA in-form player** — Jonathan Asp Jensen — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.70. [^fact-9]: **LAU key absence** — Kévin Mouanga out (injury), 797 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **GRA key absence** — Michael Frey out (injury), 559 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .