# Beşiktaş vs Gyirmót > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Thu 2 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37260) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Beşiktaş 2–1 Gyirmót ## Model verdict - **Beşiktaş win:** 79% - **Draw:** 13% - **Gyirmót win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy favourite backed by model and Elo superiority today ## The stage This is a mid-summer club friendly listed as Club Friendlies 1, with kickoff at 15:00 UTC on Thu 2 Jul 2026[^fact-1]. The match sits outside competitive domestic leagues and cups, so the immediate stakes are preparation and conditioning rather than points[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model produces a decisive lean: Home 79% / Draw 13% / Away 8%, with a stated high-confidence gap of 66 percentage points to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That aligns with a pronounced Elo edge — Besiktas carry an adjusted advantage of +279 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent match returns for Besiktas show a mixed 10-game sequence of D L W D L, which the record summarises as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses (4-2-4), delivering 1.40 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match across that span[^fact-4]. Combining the Elo skew and the model's probabilities suggests a large structural gap between the sides despite Besiktas’s uneven form[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Personnel An obvious offensive form indicator is Kristjan Asllani, who has produced 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances while averaging a 7.05 match rating[^fact-6]. On the other side of the ledger, Besiktas will be without Felix Uduokhai through injury; Uduokhai accounted for 450 minutes in the recent run before that absence[^fact-7]. The combination of an in-form attacking presence and a notable defensive absentee frames selection questions: match sharpness and rotation in a friendly can blunt the meaning of both metrics, but the facts point to an attacking outlet in form and a defensive piece missing from the recent baseline[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model numbered three in total[^fact-8]. The clearest statistical edge appears on the low-scoring side: the model flags Under 2.5 goals at 54% probability versus the market price of 3.05 on 1xBet, producing a reported edge of 21.6 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-5]. Given Besiktas’s recent per-match scoring and conceding rates — 1.40 scored and 1.10 conceded over the last 10 matches — the Under 2.5 projection coheres with the team’s tendency toward modest totals in recent games[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s heavy favoritover the match outcome and the sizeable Elo gap also imply that the fixture is likely to be controlled by the home side, which in friendlies often translates into limited open, high-scoring contests as coaches prioritise fitness and specific work over all-out attacking risk[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model’s clear lean is Home at 79% with a distinct secondary outcome probability structure (Draw 13% / Away 8%), supported by a +279-point Elo differential and specific market edges — most notably Under 2.5 goals where the model shows a 54% probability against a 3.05 market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Kristjan Asllani’s recent outputs and Felix Uduokhai’s absence are the standout personnel notes shaping how that control could be delivered on the pitch[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Markets compared totaled three versus the model[^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 2 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 79% / Draw 13% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 66 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BES vs Gyirmót — Elo differential +279 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BES recent form** — DLWDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.05 at 1xbet, edge 21.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **BES in-form player** — Kristjan Asllani — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-7]: **BES key absence** — Felix Uduokhai out (injury), 450 minutes in recent run. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .