# MTE 1904 vs Beşiktaş > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sun 5 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37261) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** MTE 1904 0–0 Beşiktaş ## Model verdict - **MTE 1904 win:** 9% - **Draw:** 12% - **Beşiktaş win:** 79% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors Firmly Favoured; Tight, Low-Scoring Friendly Expected Sunday ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 5 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC in the Club Friendlies 1 window[^fact-1]. This is a standalone preparation fixture, and the numbers supplied for the matchup present it as a clear road test rather than a competitive balancing act[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model places a very strong probability on the visiting side: Away 79% / Draw 12% / Home 9%[^fact-2]. That margin is reinforced by an Elo differential that leaves the home side with an 84-point deficit even after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent-performances data supplied for the visitors shows a steady, unbeaten-leaning run: W-D-L-W-D across the last 10 results (listed as 5-2-3), producing 1.70 points per game and outputting 1.60 goals while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. Taken together, the probabilistic model and Elo positioning mark the visitors as the hotter, more reliable side coming into this friendly[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Personnel The only supplied in-form individual is Orkun Kökçü, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.61 in the sample provided[^fact-7]. That attacking contribution and rating mark him as a short-term impact player to monitor[^fact-7]. The most consequential listed absence is Felix Uduokhai, noted out with injury after 360 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. No other named in-form players or absences for the hosts or visitors were supplied in the facts; the personnel picture in this brief is therefore anchored to the two specific entries above[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value Two explicit market edges emerge from the model-to-market comparison. First, the clearest edge is on Under 2.5 goals: the model gives 54% probability against a market price of 2.75 at bet365, producing an 18.0 percentage-point edge and flagged with high confidence in the analysis supplied[^fact-5]. Second, the match-winner market strongly favours the visitors in the model (79%); the market price quoted is 1.32 at Dafabet, producing a 3.5 percentage-point edge for the away selection but with low confidence attached[^fact-6]. The dataset included three markets compared against the model in total, which frames these two lines as the most notable discrepancies between model and market in the available sample[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the visitors (79%) and, in parallel, signals a greater probability of a low-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 54%), leaving the broad read as a comfortable away favourite in a fixture that looks likelier to be tight than wide-open[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 5 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 79% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MTE 1904 vs BES — Elo differential -84 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BES recent form** — WDLWD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.75 at bet365, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 79% vs market price 1.32 at Dafabet, edge 3.5 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **BES in-form player** — Orkun Kökçü — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.61. [^fact-8]: **BES key absence** — Felix Uduokhai out (injury), 360 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .