# Falkirk vs St. Mirren > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37279) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Falkirk 0–2 St. Mirren ## Model verdict - **Falkirk win:** 64% - **Draw:** 21% - **St. Mirren win:** 16% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and defensive questions shape model’s confident lean ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 1 Aug 2026 at 14:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. The fixture presents a straightforward framing: a team with a clear model advantage hosting at home, while the visitors arrive with recent defensive solidity on paper[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Form tells two different stories. Falkirk have produced LLLWL across their last 10 fixtures — a 3-1-6 W‑D‑L split — delivering just 1.00 points per game while averaging 1.80 goals scored and conceding 2.60 per match[^fact-4]. St. Mirren’s recent run reads WDDWL over their last 10 — a 4-2-4 W‑D‑L split — worth 1.40 points per game with a marked defensive profile: 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s underlying ratings translate into a large Elo gap in favour of the home side: a +222‑point differential after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Complementing that edge, the model puts the pre-match probabilities at Home 64% / Draw 21% / Away 16%, with a high confidence signal defined by a 43 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. Together these numbers signal that the balance of expected quality and home uplift points decisively toward the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Falkirk’s most in‑form attacking contributor over the last five appearances is Ben Broggio, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in that span and carries an average rating of 6.67[^fact-8]. St. Mirren counter with Richard King as their recent bright spot: 1 goal and 1 assist across his last three outings and an average rating of 7.04[^fact-9]. The visitors are also carrying a named absence: Ryan Mullen is out injured, having most recently logged 58 minutes in that run prior to his unavailability[^fact-10]. That absence is the single listed personnel head‑line supplied for either side and will matter in how St. Mirren adjust workload and match‑ups on the pitch[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed: 3 market(s) were compared against the model[^fact-11]. Two clear value discrepancies emerge between the model and available prices. - Match winner — Home: the model assigns a 77% probability to the home win versus a market price implying 2.08 at MansionBet, producing an edge of 28.8 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Goals under 2.5: the model’s probability for under 2.5 goals is 59% compared with a market price implying 2.03 at Sbo, an edge of 9.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Both edges are described with the model’s high confidence language supplied alongside the figures; the larger single discrepancy is the match‑winner projection for the host, while the goals market flags a secondary lean toward a tighter scoreline[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: favour the home side — a 64% model probability and a separate 77% match‑win projection against market pricing underline a substantial home advantage and rating gap[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Defensive metrics and recent form paint the contest as one where St. Mirren have been compact lately but are weakened by the named absence, while Falkirk’s numbers reflect higher conceded goals despite home Elo support, producing the model’s confident single‑outcome tilt[^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-4][^fact-3]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 64% / Draw 21% / Away 16% (source: model; confidence high, 43 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FAL vs STM — Elo differential +222 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FAL recent form** — LLLWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STM recent form** — WDDWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 2.08 at MansionBet, edge 28.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 2.03 at Sbo, edge 9.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **FAL in-form player** — Ben Broggio — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.67. [^fact-9]: **STM in-form player** — Richard King — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **STM key absence** — Ryan Mullen  out (injury), 58 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .