# Aberdeen vs Hearts > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 1 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37285) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Aberdeen 2–1 Hearts ## Model verdict - **Aberdeen win:** 10% - **Draw:** 19% - **Hearts win:** 71% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hearts firmly favoured as visitors carry clear statistical edge ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off Sat 1 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC and pits Aberdeen[^fact-1] against Hearts[^fact-1]. The match sits in the domestic top flight with standard competitive stakes for both sides[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Hearts arrive as the hotter team on recent evidence: their last 10 shows LWDWW for a 6-2-2 W-D-L split and 2.00 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Aberdeen’s recent run reads LLWDW for a 3-2-5 W-D-L split and 1.10 points per game, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-4]. The objective model places a heavy probability on the away side, giving Hearts 62% to win while assigning Aberdeen a 16% chance and a 22% chance of a draw; the model’s confidence is high with a 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That systemic view is mirrored by a commanding Elo edge: Aberdeen are down by 189 Elo points after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Taken together, form metrics and Elo both pull toward the same conclusion: Hearts hold the substantive momentum advantage[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Aberdeen’s in-form attacking outlet is Toyosi Olusanya, who has two goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.94 across that period[^fact-8]. Hearts’ primary scoring threat in recent games is Lawrence Shankland, with three goals and an average rating of 7.05 in his last five appearances[^fact-9]. A notable defensive absence for Hearts is Craig Halkett, who is out injured after accumulating 603 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. That absence reduces Hearts’ available defensive minutes but does not appear to have fully blunted their recent points production[^fact-10][^fact-5]. No other specific absences or minute totals are supplied in the facts, so assessments stop at the confirmed in-form players and the single key absence[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-11]. The clearest single-market edge is Away Match Winner: the model rates Hearts at 71% while the market price at 10Bet implies 44.4% (odds 2.25), producing an edge of 26.2 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. A second market with a meaningful edge is Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under 2.5 a 61% probability while the market price at Betfair (2.15) implies 46.5%, yielding an edge of 14.5 percentage points and likewise flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Those two edges point to a particular profile: the model expects Hearts to win with limited goal volume, combining a strong away-side win probability with a clear lean toward a lower-scoring outcome[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-2]. The model’s top-line probabilities are decisive, with Hearts at 62% and a high confidence gap to the next outcome[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: Hearts carry the advantage both in probability (62%) and Elo (Aberdeen -189 points with home advantage applied), while recent form and the presence of Lawrence Shankland support an away-side edge; Aberdeen have Toyosi Olusanya as a key in-form outlet but the underlying numbers favour Hearts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-9][^fact-8]. Market comparison highlights value on Hearts as Match Winner and on Under 2.5 goals, according to the analysed markets[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 1 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 16% / Draw 22% / Away 62% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ABE vs HEA — Elo differential -189 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ABE recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HEA recent form** — LWDWW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 2.25 at 10Bet, edge 26.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 61% vs market price 2.15 at Betfair, edge 14.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ABE in-form player** — Toyosi Olusanya — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-9]: **HEA in-form player** — Lawrence Shankland — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-10]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 603 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .