# Thun vs Young Boys > Super League · Kickoff Sat 1 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37291) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Thun win:** 63% - **Draw:** 25% - **Young Boys win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and absences shape a cautious forecast ## The stage This match is a Super League fixture kicking off Sat 1 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC, with Thun hosting Young Boys[^fact-1]. The scheduling and status make it a high-visibility early-season encounter for both sides. ## Form & momentum Thun arrive on the back of a mixed run: WDLLL across their last 10, recorded as 3-1-6 (W-D-L) and producing 1.00 points per game, with 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Young Boys have been a touch clearer in attack: DWWLL in their last 10, a 3-4-3 sequence, producing 1.30 points per game and a higher scoring rate of 2.30 goals while conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-5]. Elo also favours Thun with an 88-point edge after home advantage is applied, a sizeable structural advantage on paper[^fact-3]. The model consolidates those inputs into a pronounced home lean: it rates Thun 63% to win, with a 25% chance of a draw and only 12% for an away victory[^fact-2]. The model's confidence gap to the runner-up is described as high, at 38 percentage points[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Thun lose their in-form attacking outlet Michael Heule to injury; he accounted for 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances with an average rating of 6.85, and had accumulated 750 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-6][^fact-8]. That removal affects Thun's creative and finishing options directly. Young Boys are missing Joël Monteiro through injury; Monteiro had logged 566 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of minutes from Young Boys' forward rotation[^fact-9]. Young Boys' most notable current scorer is Samuel Essende, who has 4 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.04; his form will be central to Young Boys' hope of overturning the model's projection[^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model assigns a dominant home probability at 63%, with draw and away probabilities trailing at 25% and 12% respectively[^fact-2]. Two markets were analysed against that model view[^fact-10]. Those inputs — Elo +88 for the hosts and the disruption of key absences on both sides — drive the disparity between the model-implied prices and observed market prices evaluated in the analysis[^fact-3][^fact-8][^fact-9]. Given the model's high confidence gap to the runner-up, the clearest edge reported by the quantitative assessment lies on the home result as the single largest-probability outcome; the model's internal view compresses draw and away chances relative to the home outcome[^fact-2]. The two-market comparison flagged above was used to surface that edge against market pricing[^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side, driven by a pronounced Elo advantage and a consolidated probability profile that places Thun at 63% to win; absences on both teams tweak the narrative but do not erase the home edge[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 1 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 25% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 38 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — THU vs YBO — Elo differential +88 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **THU recent form** — WDLLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **YBO recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **THU in-form player** — Michael Heule — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-7]: **YBO in-form player** — Samuel Essende — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-8]: **THU key absence** — Michael Heule out (injury), 750 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **YBO key absence** — Joël Monteiro out (injury), 566 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .