# Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37298) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Cincinnati win:** 77% - **Draw:** 15% - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.97 | 1xbet | 77% | +25.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Cincinnati heavy favourites as Evander drives attacking threat ## The stage Major League Soccer meeting scheduled for kickoff Sat 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture pits Cincinnati (home) against the San Jose Earthquakes, with home advantage already factored into model calculations[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Cincinnati arrive on a run shown in the last 10 fixtures as LWWDL, a 4-4-2 record producing 1.60 points per game and 3.10 goals scored while conceding 2.60 on average[^fact-4]. San Jose's recent 10-game line reads DLWLL, a 4-3-3 record delivering 1.50 points per game with 2.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential with home advantage applied gives Cincinnati a clear edge of +154 points in this matchup[^fact-3]. That gap aligns with the model’s probabilistic assessment, which places the home outcome at 77%, a draw at 15%, and an away win at 9%[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Cincinnati's immediate attacking form is concentrated around Evander, who has contributed four goals and seven assists across his last five appearances with an average rating of 8.45 in that run[^fact-7]. San Jose's most notable recent attacking output comes from Preston Judd, who has three goals in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.10 in that sequence[^fact-8]. Defensive availability will be a storyline: Cincinnati will be without Miles Robinson due to suspension, a player who logged 370 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. San Jose are missing Timo Werner through injury; Werner accumulated 420 minutes in the comparable recent period[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model's top market discrepancy is the Match Winner market where the model prices a home win at 77% versus the available market price of 1.97 at 1xbet, producing an edge of 25.8 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Two markets were analysed against the model in total, with this Match Winner line representing the clearest divergence between model probability and market odds[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The magnitude of the Elo advantage and the concentrated form of key attacking players are the drivers behind that model-market gap[^fact-3][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: a 77% probability for Cincinnati, with the draw and away outcomes far behind at 15% and 9% respectively, reflecting a substantial 62 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up scenario in the model's ranking[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 15% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CIN vs SJE — Elo differential +154 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CIN recent form** — LWWDL last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 3.10 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SJE recent form** — DLWLL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.97 at 1xbet, edge 25.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **CIN in-form player** — Evander — 4 goals, 7 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.45. [^fact-8]: **SJE in-form player** — Preston Judd — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-9]: **CIN key absence** — Miles Robinson out (suspension), 370 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SJE key absence** — Timo Werner out (injury), 420 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .