# St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37318) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **St. Johnstone win:** 19% - **Draw:** 22% - **Kilmarnock win:** 59% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.03 | Sbo | 54% | +5.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Kilmarnock favoured, tight game expected under 2.5 goals ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. This fixture pits the home side against an away team that the model rates clearly ahead on result probability[^fact-2]. The market comparison covered three markets versus the model[^fact-10]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences leave little doubt about who carries momentum. St. Johnstone’s ten-match line reads LLWLL, a 2-2-6 W-D-L split giving 0.80 points per game with 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Kilmarnock arrive in much better nick: WWWWL on their last ten, a 6-1-3 W-D-L split producing 1.90 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo picture, with home advantage applied, shows St. Johnstone behind by 70 points against Kilmarnock[^fact-3]. All three indicators—the short-form numbers, points-per-game, and Elo edge—point to the away side being the hotter and stronger unit[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel St. Johnstone’s most notable in-form contributor in the last five appearances is Josh McPake, who has registered 0 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.48[^fact-7]. The club must also deal with the absence of B. Mikulić, who is out injured[^fact-9]. For Kilmarnock, Joe Hugill is the clear attacking figure to watch, having scored 5 goals in his last five matches with an average rating of 7.44[^fact-8]. These player-level snapshots underline a contrast: St. Johnstone’s recent creativity note is supply-led through an assister, while Kilmarnock possess a sharper finishing threat up front[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model produces a probability split of Home 23% / Draw 30% / Away 47%—a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high-confidence lean toward the away side[^fact-2]. That lean shows up in market comparisons: the clearest edge identified is on the Under 2.5 goals line, where the model assigns 54% probability against a market price of 2.03 at Sbo, an edge of 5.1 percentage points and a mid confidence tag[^fact-6]. That implies the model expects a greater than coin-flip chance of a low-scoring game even though Kilmarnock have been scoring at 1.90 goals per match recently[^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-8]. The markets analysed in this piece were three in total versus the model[^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward the away side while also expecting a tight scoring profile: away-favouring probabilities sit at 47% with a significant gap to the runner-up[^fact-2], the Elo differential favours the visitors by 70 points[^fact-3], and recent form clusters reinforce that picture with Kilmarnock on 1.90 PPG versus St. Johnstone on 0.80 PPG[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The single notable market inefficiency is on Under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 54% probability contrasts with a market price of 2.03 at Sbo (edge 5.1 pp)[^fact-6]. Personnel snapshots add texture: Josh McPake’s creative run and B. Mikulić’s absence matter for the hosts[^fact-7][^fact-9], while Joe Hugill’s finishing form remains the clearest match-tilting factor for the visitors[^fact-8]. Overall, the analytical picture is an away-leaning expectation paired with a forecast for a relatively low-scoring contest[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 23% / Draw 30% / Away 47% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STJ vs KIL — Elo differential -70 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STJ recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KIL recent form** — WWWWL last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.03 at Sbo, edge 5.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **STJ in-form player** — Josh McPake — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.48. [^fact-8]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.44. [^fact-9]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .