# St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37318) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock ## Model verdict - **St. Johnstone win:** 19% - **Draw:** 21% - **Kilmarnock win:** 59% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away favourites with clear model edge and under-goals appeal ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 2 Aug 2026 at 13:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not specify the stadium or wider competition context beyond the Premiership listing, so the build-up here focuses strictly on the match-time and the available quantitative signals[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model hands a strong advantage to the visitors: Home 19% / Draw 21% / Away 59%, with a stated confidence described as high and a 38 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That probabilistic split is consistent with the underlying strength gap identified by Elo: an Elo differential of -70 points for STJ versus KIL after applying home advantage, indicating Kilmarnock arrive as the higher-rated side on that scale[^fact-3]. Recent form amplifies the same story. St. Johnstone’s last 10 reads LLWLL, recorded as 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, yielding 0.80 points per game while averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Kilmarnock’s last 10 is WWWWL — 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses — producing 1.90 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The combination of Elo and the form metrics points to a clear momentum advantage for Kilmarnock coming into the fixture[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel St. Johnstone’s most notable recent contributor in the supplied facts is Josh McPake: 0 goals and 3 assists in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 7.48[^fact-7]. That profile suggests McPake has been influential in chance creation even if finishing has not followed in the sample provided[^fact-7]. On the opposite flank, Kilmarnock’s Joe Hugill has five goals and no assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.44 — a striking scoring return over the same sample window[^fact-8]. Personnel risk for St. Johnstone is underlined by the listed absence of B. Mikulić with injury; that loss figures as the primary named absence in the facts provided[^fact-9]. The supplied materials do not enumerate other absentees or touch on tactical tweaks, so assessment focuses on the named form players and this confirmed injury[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies one standout market edge in the data: Under 2.5 goals is modelled at 54% probability versus a market price of 2.03 at SBO, producing an edge of 5.1 percentage points and a mid confidence signal[^fact-6]. That is the single value pick quantified in the supplied facts and should be read alongside the market comparison set: three markets were analysed against the model in total[^fact-10]. Context for that under-2.5 preference is contained in the defensive and scoring rates supplied. St. Johnstone average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match across their recent run, while Kilmarnock average 1.90 scored and 1.30 conceded[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s tilt toward fewer goals arrives despite Kilmarnock’s superior attacking numbers, which suggests the probabilistic engine sees either suppression of expected total goals in this specific matchup or a distribution where Kilmarnock wins without an especially high aggregate scoreline[^fact-6][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the away side: a 59% chance for Kilmarnock against 19% for the home side, supported by a -70 Elo differential that favours the visitors and contrasting recent form lines that place Kilmarnock on hotter form[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. The clearest market inefficiency called out by the model is under 2.5 goals, priced at 2.03 on SBO with a 54% model probability and a 5.1 pp edge (mid confidence) — the principal quantified angle presented in the supplied facts[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 21% / Away 59% (source: model; confidence high, 38 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STJ vs KIL — Elo differential -70 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STJ recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KIL recent form** — WWWWL last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.03 at Sbo, edge 5.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **STJ in-form player** — Josh McPake — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.48. [^fact-8]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.44. [^fact-9]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .