# Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37359) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 Borussia Dortmund ## Model verdict - **Fortuna Düsseldorf win:** 10% - **Draw:** 13% - **Borussia Dortmund win:** 77% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear model lean toward an away rout underpinned by big Elo gap ## The stage This is a Club Friendly listed as Club Friendlies 1 with kickoff on Sat 25 Jul 2026 at 11:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture sits outside competitive league structures, but model signals treat it as a meaningful match-up for form and player rhythms given the teams involved[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model makes a decisive call: Home 7% / Draw 10% / Away 83%[^fact-2]. That translates to an overwhelming tilt in Borussia Dortmund’s direction, and the confidence gap to the runner-up is large (73 percentage points)[^fact-2]. The underlying strength differential is stark on Elo: Dortmund hold an applied advantage of 308 points over Düsseldorf[^fact-3]. Recent form numbers reinforce the same story. Düsseldorf’s last 10 show LWLWL and a 3-0-7 record (W-D-L), yielding 0.90 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, Dortmund come into this block with WWWLW and a 7-0-3 record (W-D-L), collecting 2.10 points per game while averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those sample lines line up with the model’s heavy away lean and the Elo gap rather than suggesting a narrow, toss-up friendly[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Düsseldorf’s attacking note to watch is Cedric Itten, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.46 over that run[^fact-8]. His finish and form matter for Düsseldorf’s limited offensive output, especially with Emmanuel Iyoha unavailable through injury after 517 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Dortmund’s front line is led, in-form, by Serhou Guirassy, who has 4 goals in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 6.98 in that period[^fact-9]. At the back, Dortmund will be missing Nico Schlotterbeck due to injury after 810 minutes in his recent run, a notable defensive absence to monitor[^fact-11]. All four individual mentions are direct inputs to the model’s projections and to how each side may alter shape and personnel usage in a friendly[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model compares three markets against available prices and flags two clear edges[^fact-12]. First, the Under 2.5 goals market carries model probability 53% while the market price is 2.95 at 10Bet, producing an edge of 19.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the Away Match Winner shows a model probability of 76% versus a market price of 1.45 at 1xbet, giving an edge of 7.5 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. Both value calls sit against the same backdrop: a strong Dortmund projection and the model’s expectation that the game can be both decisive and compressed in scoring range — hence the simultaneous Advocated Away winner and Under 2.5 edges[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Markets analysed in total: 3[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans emphatically toward an away outcome, driven by a 308-point Elo edge and Dortmund’s superior recent returns; probabilities read Home 7% / Draw 10% / Away 83%[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Personnel notes sharpen the picture: Düsseldorf rely on Cedric Itten for the attacking spark while Emmanuel Iyoha is absent, and Dortmund’s firepower centers on Serhou Guirassy despite the defensive absence of Nico Schlotterbeck[^fact-8][^fact-10][^fact-9][^fact-11]. Market comparisons identify two value edges — Under 2.5 goals at 2.95 (model 53%) and Away Match Winner at 1.45 (model 76%) — that sit consistent with the model’s heavy away lean[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 7% / Draw 10% / Away 83% (source: model; confidence high, 73 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DU vs BVB — Elo differential -308 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DU recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BVB recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 7-0-3 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.95 at 10Bet, edge 19.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.45 at 1xbet, edge 7.5 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **DU in-form player** — Cedric Itten — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-9]: **BVB in-form player** — Serhou Guirassy — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-10]: **DU key absence** — Emmanuel Iyoha out (injury), 517 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **BVB key absence** — Nico Schlotterbeck out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .