# Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37359) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Huge Elo Gap and Dortmund’s Momentum Dominate Pre‑match Frame ## The stage This friendly arrives on Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC in the Club Friendlies 1 calendar slot[^fact-1]. The status of the fixture is that of a warm‑up with match rhythm and fitness the primary prizes; the data lens for this piece treats it as a competitive probe rather than a must‑win league test[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent runs point sharply in one direction. Borussia Dortmund sit on a seven‑wins, zero draws, three losses picture across their last ten matches (WWWLW), averaging 2.10 points per game and scoring 2.00 goals while conceding 0.90 per match[^fact-5]. Fortuna Düsseldorf’s sequence is markedly weaker: three wins, zero draws, seven losses (LWLWL across the last ten), at 0.90 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The baseline predictive signals amplify that split. The model’s verdict assigns an away probability of 62%, with home and draw both at 19%[^fact-2]. That stance sits on top of a large Elo gulf: Düsseldorf carry a negative 308‑point differential even after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Together, the form numbers and the -308 Elo edge make Dortmund the clear momentum side going into kickoff[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent attacking returns. Cedric Itten has three goals and one assist in his last four appearances, producing an average match rating of 7.46[^fact-6]. Serhou Guirassy arrives with four goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.98[^fact-7]. Those return rates place finishing and forward threat centrally in the match narrative for both teams[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Key absences further shape selection risk. Düsseldorf will be without Emmanuel Iyoha through injury; Iyoha features for 517 minutes in the recent run before the absence[^fact-8]. Dortmund’s defensive options are affected by the absence of Nico Schlotterbeck, who logged 810 minutes in his recent run before missing this match[^fact-9]. Those minutes‑lost markers indicate both teams have to account for missing contributors on opposite ends of the pitch[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary price view is concentrated and decisive: a 62% away probability versus 19% for a home win and 19% for a draw[^fact-2]. The model also reports a 43 percentage‑point gap between the top recommendation (away) and the runner‑up, a sign of high conviction in the projection[^fact-2]. Market analysis compared one market against the model’s outputs for this fixture[^fact-10]. Putting those elements together: the combination of Dortmund’s attacking output (2.00 goals per match in recent form), their defensive solidity (0.90 conceded per match), and the -308 Elo tilt after home advantage argues the model sees a clear structural advantage for the away side[^fact-5][^fact-3]. Concurrently, Düsseldorf’s lower points per game (0.90) and higher goals conceded (1.90) increase their vulnerability in open play[^fact-4]. The presence of in‑form forwards on both teams narrows the framing to one of Dortmund being able to impose quality on the day while Düsseldorf lack the underlying metrics to offset that pressure[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans firmly to the away side, with a 62% probability and a 43 percentage‑point margin over the nearest alternative, reflecting Dortmund’s superior recent output and a substantial -308 Elo edge even with home advantage applied[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Absent additional context beyond the supplied facts, the analytical picture is straightforward: Dortmund carry the momentum and statistical profile to control the contest, while Düsseldorf face an uphill task recovering from a weaker run and key offensive absence[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 19% / Away 62% (source: odds; confidence high, 43 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DU vs BVB — Elo differential -308 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DU recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BVB recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 7-0-3 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **DU in-form player** — Cedric Itten — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-7]: **BVB in-form player** — Serhou Guirassy — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-8]: **DU key absence** — Emmanuel Iyoha out (injury), 517 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **BVB key absence** — Nico Schlotterbeck out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 1 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .