# St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37386) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Mirren 1–0 St. Johnstone ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 53% - **Draw:** 34% - **St. Johnstone win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and defensive sting set the tone for tight tie ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. This fixture pitches the home side into a game the model treats as the clear favourite — Home 53% / Draw 34% / Away 13%[^fact-2]. The market context behind those percentages matters: three markets were compared against the model’s outputs[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum On form lines, the home side arrives with a recent sequence of WWDDW across the last 10 matches, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, delivering 1.40 points per game and averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last-10 readout is WLLWL — 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats — worth 1.00 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw trends sit behind a sizeable Elo gap: an advantage of +155 points to the home side once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That Elo margin amplifies the impression of a marginal but meaningful strength differential despite the symmetry in recent points returns. ## Personnel The home side’s most conspicuous form boost arrives through Killian Phillips, who has scored 3 goals in his last 2 appearances and carries an average match rating of 8.19 in that period[^fact-7]. On the visiting side, Elliot Watt offers a recent influence of 1 goal and 1 assist over his last 4 appearances with an average rating of 7.42[^fact-8]. Availability figures into selection decisions: Ryan Mullen is listed out with an injury and must be counted absent, having logged 58 minutes in the recent run referenced in the notes[^fact-9]. The visitors will also be without B. Mikulić due to injury[^fact-10]. Those absences remove known minutes and continuity for both teams and tilt the question of personnel advantage toward the side better able to replace those minutes within the matchplan. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies an edge on Under 2.5 goals — a 54% probability against a market price of 2.01 at Pinnacle, producing an estimated edge of 4.6 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. That recommendation sits alongside the broader model probabilities that favor a home result at 53% while the market comparison covered three separate markets[^fact-2][^fact-11]. The combination of low scoring averages for the home side (0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match) and the visitors’ higher goals conceded rate (1.70 per match) are inputs behind the reduced total-goals expectation, in line with the Under 2.5 projection[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side (53%) with a clear cushion over the runner-up outcome (draw 34%), supported by a +155 Elo differential when home advantage is applied; the most actionable market discrepancy identified is Under 2.5 goals where the model computes a 54% probability against the 2.01 market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 53% / Draw 34% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 19 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs STJ — Elo differential +155 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — WWDDW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STJ recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.01 at Pinnacle, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **STM in-form player** — Killian Phillips — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 8.19. [^fact-8]: **STJ in-form player** — Elliot Watt — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-9]: **STM key absence** — Ryan Mullen  out (injury), 58 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .