# Hearts vs Dundee United > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37388) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hearts 4–0 Dundee United ## Model verdict - **Hearts win:** 77% - **Draw:** 14% - **Dundee United win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Hearts favourites as model pins huge Elo gap ## The stage Premiership action lands on Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC for Hearts vs Dundee United[^fact-1][^fact-1]. This fixture is framed as a clear home assignment: the model gives a Home 77% probability, Draw 14% and Away 9% split[^fact-2]. The market set-up and the model comparison cover three separate markets analysed against the model[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum Hearts have a recent ten-match sequence logged as LLWDW and are recorded as 5-2-3 (W-D-L) over that window, producing 1.70 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded on average[^fact-4]. Dundee United arrive on a DDDLL run and are 3-4-3 (W-D-L) over ten, generating 1.30 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The Elo model singles out a substantial edge for Hearts, an Elo differential of +321 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3], which aligns with the model’s heavy Home probability[^fact-2]. That combination—superior recent output for Hearts[^fact-4] and a large Elo gap[^fact-3]—frames Hearts as the side carrying momentum into kickoff[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Hearts’ attacking burden is being shouldered by Lawrence Shankland, who has three goals and no assists in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.08[^fact-8]. For Dundee United the notable in-form contributor is Zachary Sapsford, with one goal, zero assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.59[^fact-9]. The most prominent absence on the teamsheet is Hearts’ Craig Halkett, ruled out through injury after 513 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. That defensive void is the clearest personnel disruption noted by the model and could shape Hearts’ defensive setup given Halkett’s recent minutes[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market divergence is the Match Winner market: the model prices Home at 77% while the market lists the home win at 1.65 with 888Sport, producing an edge of 16.7 percentage points for the Home selection (high confidence)[^fact-6]. A secondary, more modest edge sits on Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under 2.5 a 53% probability while the market quotes 2.14 at Sbo, an edge of 5.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. These two edges come out of the three markets compared to the model consensus[^fact-11], with the Match Winner gap the dominant discrepancy and the Under 2.5 line flagged as a lower-confidence, supplementary angle[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: a strong Home verdict driven by a 77% model probability and a +321 Elo edge after home advantage, with the loss of Craig Halkett the primary personnel caveat to monitor for Hearts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-10]. Hearts’ attacking form through Lawrence Shankland and the overall recent returns versus Dundee United’s quieter numbers underpin the model’s preference[^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 14% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HEA vs DUD — Elo differential +321 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HEA recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — DDDLL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.65 at 888Sport, edge 16.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.14 at Sbo, edge 5.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **HEA in-form player** — Lawrence Shankland — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-9]: **DUD in-form player** — Zachary Sapsford — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.59. [^fact-10]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 513 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .