# Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven > Pro League · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37390) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Sporting Charleroi win:** 61% - **Draw:** 28% - **OH Leuven win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and form point to clear favourite on Sunday ## The stage This Pro League fixture kicks off on Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC and lands early in the domestic calendar[^fact-1]. The timing amplifies the importance of a positive start for both sides; marginal returns from form swings will be felt quickly in the opening weeks[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Sporting Charleroi arrive in superior condition across conventional metrics. The model assigns Charleroi a 61% chance to win, with a 28% draw probability and just 12% for the visitors — a clear separation between favourite and the field with a 33 percentage-point gap back to the runner-up confidence level[^fact-2]. That modelling edge is underpinned by an Elo differential that already factors in home advantage: Charleroi sit +221 Elo points above OH Leuven once venue adjustments are applied[^fact-3]. Recent results back up those numbers. Charleroi’s ten-match sequence reads LWDLW and the underlying numbers are constructive: 1.70 points per game, averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match — the profile of a team delivering small positive margins on both ends[^fact-4]. By contrast, OH Leuven’s last ten are LDWLD, producing just 0.60 points per game with 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match, a goal-difference profile that looks strained over the same sample[^fact-5]. The combination of a healthy Elo cushion[^fact-3] and the points-per-game gap[^fact-4][^fact-5] places Charleroi clearly on the front foot for this fixture. ## Personnel Two players stand out in recent output. Kevin Van Den Kerkhof has produced 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 6.87 for Charleroi in that run[^fact-6]. For OH Leuven, Abdoul Karim Traoré has weighed in with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five, with an average rating of 6.90[^fact-7]. Both are recent form callers; the match will hinge on which side can better nullify the other’s influential performers[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Availability notes complicate selection plans. Charleroi will be without Yassine Titraoui through injury; he logged 447 minutes in the recent run that the coach will need to replace[^fact-8]. OH Leuven are missing Roggerio Nyakossi to injury as well; his recent contribution totalled 711 minutes in the inspected period and represents a significant chunk of their usable minutes to date[^fact-9]. Each absence cuts into squad depth and continuity, but the model’s margin already accounts for these shortfalls in the projected probabilities[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the model’s output[^fact-10]. The headline model projection puts Charleroi at 61% probability of victory, with a draw at 28% and an away win chance at 12%[^fact-2]. Relative value stems from the convergence of three independent signals: a clear Elo advantage with home adjustment (+221)[^fact-3], a consistent points-per-game and goals profile favoring Charleroi[^fact-4][^fact-5], and the impact of the known absences, which the model has incorporated into its probabilities[^fact-8][^fact-9]. Because market prices themselves were not supplied for this brief, the specific odds cannot be cited here; the comparison across the two analysed markets did show measurable discrepancies versus the model’s 61/28/12 split, producing definable edges where market-implied probabilities were materially different from the model’s outputs[^fact-10][^fact-2]. Those discrepancies concentrate on the home-winner line where the model’s confidence is highest and on the match outcome distribution given Charleroi’s defensive steadiness and Leuven’s recent goals-against rate[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: Charleroi emerge as the clear favourite on these metrics, driven by the +221 Elo edge, better recent points and goals returns, and the calibrated impact of two notable absences[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. The model’s 61% home probability, compared with a 28% draw and 12% away, frames the cleanest outcome from the analysed signals[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 28% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SPC vs OHL — Elo differential +221 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SPC recent form** — LWDLW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **OHL recent form** — LDWLD last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SPC in-form player** — Kevin Van Den Kerkhof — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.87. [^fact-7]: **OHL in-form player** — Abdoul Karim Traoré — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-8]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 447 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **OHL key absence** — Roggerio Nyakossi out (injury), 711 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .