# Burnley vs Notts County > Carabao Cup · Kickoff Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37402) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Burnley win:** 70% - **Draw:** 16% - **Notts County win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.60 | bwin | 76% | +13.7 pp | | totals | Under | 2.10 | bet365 | 54% | +6.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo gap and form paint Burnley as clear favourite ## The stage Saturday's Carabao Cup tie kicks off at 14:00 UTC on 8 August 2026, a straight knockout that offers both sides a chance to set a tone early in the season[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Burnley enter the game with a worrying set of results: DLDLL across their last 10 matches, a record listed as 0-3-7 (W-D-L), producing 0.30 points per game and averaging 0.60 goals scored while conceding 1.90 per match[^fact-4]. Notts County have their own issues, showing LLLWL over the last six with a record of 1-0-5, 0.50 points per game and an attack/defence profile of 1.67 goals scored versus 2.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The raw matchup edge sits heavily with the home side on Elo terms: Burnley hold a +192-point advantage once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That Elo margin is the clearest signal on capability available from these facts, juxtaposed with both clubs' recent poor form numbers[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Burnley’s most notable in-form attacker within the supplied data is Jaidon Anthony, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.73[^fact-6]. Notts County’s go-to contributor in the available sample is Daniel Crowley, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last two outings and an average rating of 7.04[^fact-7]. The single heavy absence recorded in the supplied facts is Burnley’s Mike Tresor, who is out injured after playing 18 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. No further squad details are provided in the supplied facts, so assessment focuses on these highlighted individuals and the teams’ recent output figures[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The quantitative model built from the supplied market and performance indicators produces a first-impression probability split of Home 60%, Draw 22%, Away 17%[^fact-2]. That 60% home probability arrives alongside an Elo differential of +192 in Burnley’s favour when home advantage is applied, framing the market view against a substantial underlying rating gap[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Markets analysed against the model total three separate datasets in the supplied facts, meaning the model’s verdict is informed by comparison to three markets[^fact-9]. With Burnley’s low goal production of 0.60 per game and Notts County’s slightly higher 1.67 per game, the model’s probabilities—particularly the lower draw and away numbers—reflect the idea that home quality (as represented by Elo) outweighs recent form shortcomings in this single-match knockout context[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. The supplied in-form player lines suggest individual moments of influence exist on both sides — Anthony for Burnley and Crowley for Notts County — but neither player's recent returns in the provided sample point to sustained attacking firepower sufficient to overturn the model’s home skew on their own[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The only explicitly listed absence is Burnley’s Tresor, which reduces available depth on the home side in a limited way according to the supplied fact[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side with a 60% probability, a stance reinforced by a +192 Elo edge after home advantage is applied and cross-checked against three markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-9]. Recent form for both clubs is poor by the supplied metrics, so the tie looks more like a clash between Burnley’s higher underlying rating and two teams operating below the levels their Elo suggests they should reach at their peaks[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Carabao Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 22% / Away 17% (source: odds; confidence high, 38 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs NOT — Elo differential +192 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 0-3-7 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NOT recent form** — LLLWL last 6: 1-0-5 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 1.67 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **BUR in-form player** — Jaidon Anthony — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.73. [^fact-7]: **NOT in-form player** — Daniel Crowley — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-8]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .