# Burnley vs Notts County > Carabao Cup · Kickoff Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37402) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Burnley win:** 70% - **Draw:** 16% - **Notts County win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.60 | bwin | 76% | +13.7 pp | | totals | Under | 2.10 | bet365 | 54% | +6.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Burnley heavy favourites as cup test looms at Turf Moor ## The stage Burnley host Notts County in a Carabao Cup tie kicking off Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The competition context is straightforward: a one-off knockout where teams can rotate but knockout outcomes still matter to squad momentum and fan expectations[^fact-1]. Market and model attention is focused on the home side: the model assigns a 70% chance to the home win[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint Burnley as fragile in terms of outputs but structurally superior. Burnley’s last 10 compiled DLDLL, recorded as 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses, yielding 0.30 points per game and an output of 0.60 goals scored while conceding 1.90 per match[^fact-4]. Notts County’s last six are LLLWL — 1 win, 0 draws and 5 losses — with 0.50 points per game and averages of 1.67 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Where the numbers diverge is quality: the model applies a 192-point Elo edge to Burnley once home advantage is factored in[^fact-3]. That Elo differential explains why the model still favours the hosts heavily despite middling recent form — Burnley’s structural rating gap outweighs the short-term noise in results[^fact-3]. The model’s confidence gap is material: the verdict margin is 54 percentage points to the runner-up, reinforcing the clear lean toward the home side[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Burnley’s in-form contributor on the data sheet is Jaidon Anthony, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.73 over that span[^fact-8]. Notts County’s most notable recent performer is Daniel Crowley, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last two appearances and an average rating of 7.04[^fact-9]. A key absence for Burnley is Mike Tresor, who is out injured and has featured for only 18 minutes in the recent run noted by the model[^fact-10]. That loss reduces a creative option for the hosts and is a concrete personnel caveat in an otherwise statistically favoured lineup[^fact-10][^fact-8]. Notts County’s recent results suggest defensive fragility given the 2.50 goals conceded per match in the last six, which elevates the significance of any attacking form such as Crowley’s[^fact-5][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-11]. The clearest value is on the home Match Winner: the model projects a 76% probability for Burnley in that market while the market price available at bwin implied a lower probability (1.60 decimal), producing an edge of 13.7 percentage points and a high-confidence rating from the model[^fact-6]. A secondary market where the model finds upside is the Under 2.5 Goals line: the model gives Under 2.5 a 54% probability versus a market price at bet365 of 2.10, leaving a mid-confidence edge of 6.8 percentage points[^fact-7]. This aligns with Burnley’s low scoring rate in recent matches (0.60 goals per game) and both teams’ defensive concession patterns, which have suppressed clear high-scoring output in the short term[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Those two markets frame the risk landscape: strong model conviction on the home result paired with a lesser, but notable, tilt toward a low-scoring outcome[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The number of markets compared in this assessment is three, indicating a focused rather than exhaustive market scan[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: home win is the primary expectation with 70% probability, underpinned by a 192-point Elo advantage and a 76% match-winner projection in the model versus market pricing[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Secondary conviction sits with a modest preference for under 2.5 goals at 54% by the model, reflecting both sides’ recent scoring and conceding patterns[^fact-7][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Carabao Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 70% / Draw 16% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 54 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs NOT — Elo differential +192 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 0-3-7 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NOT recent form** — LLLWL last 6: 1-0-5 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 1.67 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.60 at bwin, edge 13.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.10 at bet365, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **BUR in-form player** — Jaidon Anthony — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.73. [^fact-9]: **NOT in-form player** — Daniel Crowley — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .