# Dereham Town vs Walsham Le Willows > FA Cup · Kickoff Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37446) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Dereham Town win:** 44% - **Draw:** 32% - **Walsham Le Willows win:** 24% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and defensive questions shape early FA Cup tie ## The stage This is an early-season FA Cup tie scheduled for kickoff on Sat 8 Aug 2026 at 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture carries the usual cup weight of a one-off knockout day where small margins and form swings matter more than long-term league positioning; both sides will be looking to avoid an early exit from the competition[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Dereham Town arrive with a clearer short-term trajectory than their visitors; their ten-game sequence reads LLWDL (four wins, two draws, four defeats) with an average of 1.40 points per game[^fact-4]. That sequence is supported by a goals profile of 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded per match over the same span[^fact-4]. Walsham Le Willows sit on a rougher run: DWLDL over eight matches (two wins, two draws, four defeats) and a lower return of 1.00 points per game[^fact-5]. Their attacking output is 1.63 goals per match but they have been porous at the back, conceding 2.75 per match in that period[^fact-5]. The Elo framework applied to this meeting gives Dereham a significant edge, an Elo differential of +125 with home advantage already accounted for[^fact-3]. That differential plugs into the model’s probabilities, which favour the home side — the model rates a Dereham win at 44%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 24%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence gap between the top pick and the runner-up sits at 12 percentage points, described internally as a mid-level confidence signal[^fact-2]. Putting the on-pitch numbers together: Dereham’s marginally better defensive balance (1.30 conceded vs Walsham’s 2.75 conceded per game) and steadier points yield appear to underpin the Elo advantage and the model’s lean[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. Walsham’s slightly higher scoring rate over their recent run (1.63 goals per match) offers counterpoint, but the frequency of goals against them is the more concerning figure[^fact-5]. ## Personnel No squad-specific data or injury lists are available in the supplied facts, so in-form spotlights and concrete absences cannot be named with confidence. The assessment must therefore rest on form and structure alone: Dereham’s recent returns and cleaner goals-against rate imply the squad is producing a level of defensive reliability not apparent in Walsham’s recent run[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Any deeper personnel narrative would require matchday squads, which are not provided in the supplied facts. ## Where the model sees value The model gives a clear single-game ordering: home favoured at 44%, draw 32%, away 24%[^fact-2]. Two markets were analysed against the model as part of the pre-match process[^fact-6]. Given the Elo cushion of +125 in favour of the hosts, the strongest structural edge appears on the home outcome, where the model’s probability is highest and supported by both recent form and defensive metrics[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The draw projection is non-trivial at roughly one-third probability and reflects the model’s attempt to account for cup noise; that stems from the model’s 32% draw estimate[^fact-2]. The away probability is the smallest of the three and aligns with Walsham’s recent lower points-per-game and heavier goals-against load[^fact-2][^fact-5]. Because only two markets were compared, the depth of market-model divergence is limited by the number of markets analysed in this preview[^fact-6]. The 12 percentage-point gap between the model’s top pick and its runner-up indicates a mid-level clarity from the model rather than an overwhelming signal; that gap is the model’s stated confidence margin[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side: Dereham is favoured at 44% on the back of a +125 Elo edge and steadier defensive returns, while Walsham’s higher goals-for figure is offset by a markedly poorer goals-against rate and a lower points-per-game return[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — FA Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 44% / Draw 32% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence mid, 12 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DER vs Walsham Le Willows — Elo differential +125 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DER recent form** — LLWDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Walsham Le Willows recent form** — DWLDL last 8: 2-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.63 goals scored / 2.75 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .