# Little Common vs Haywards Heath Town > FA Cup · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37556) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Little Common win:** 51% - **Draw:** 25% - **Haywards Heath Town win:** 24% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home slight edge backed by noticeable Elo advantage ## The stage This is a first-round FA Cup tie kicking off on Sun 9 Aug 2026 at 13:00 UTC, a single-match knockout with all the usual cup volatility attached[^fact-1]. The fixture is straightforward in competitive terms — progress or exit — and the model gives a narrow but clear tilt in favour of the home side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint a tale of two different slide trajectories. Little Common have managed one win, one draw and five defeats over their last seven outings, a run that translates to 0.57 points per game and 0.71 goals scored against 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Haywards Heath Town’s more mixed sequence across nine matches reads three wins, one draw and five defeats, worth 1.11 points per game with 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Contextualising those lines against the rating systems: the model applies home advantage to give Little Common an Elo edge of +68 points over Haywards Heath Town[^fact-3]. An Elo gap on that order, with the home boost applied, is the dominant structural signal the model uses to justify its marginal home preference, even though recent form for Little Common looks poorer on raw results and defensive returns[^fact-4][^fact-3]. In short: form favours Haywards Heath Town in scoring and points per game, but Elo and venue favour the hosts[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel No specific player-level minutes, injuries or suspensions were included in the supplied facts, so personnel-level analysis must be cautiously high-level: the available numbers show Little Common conceding at a higher rate than Haywards Heath Town over the windows provided, which implies defensive stability and availability will be decisive if past trends hold[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Any assessment of in-form individuals or the heaviest absences cannot be supplied from the facts provided and therefore does not factor into the model outputs quoted here. ## Where the model sees value Two external markets were analysed against the model’s outputs for this fixture[^fact-6]. The model’s headline probability distribution is Home 51%, Draw 25% and Away 24%[^fact-2]. Translating those probabilities into model-implied decimal odds gives roughly Home 1.96, Draw 4.00 and Away 4.17 — figures derived directly from the stated percentages[^fact-2]. Those model-implied prices anchor where the model sees edges. The core insight is that a modest home lean (51%) sits on top of a material Elo advantage (+68 with home applied), while Little Common’s raw recent numbers show trouble in preventing goals[^fact-3][^fact-4]. Conversely, Haywards Heath Town’s better short-term points-per-game and superior goals-for rate suggest the away line could be underpriced in markets that overweight recent form over ratings[^fact-5]. Because only two markets were compared, the model’s recommended tilt is conservative: it flags discrepancies where market prices diverge materially from the model-implied odds above, but no specific market odds were supplied in the facts for direct price-by-price comparison[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side, giving Little Common 51% to win against Haywards Heath Town’s 24%, supported by an Elo edge of +68 with home advantage applied, even as their recent results show defensive fragility[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Markets were checked across two outlets; final judgement depends on whether market prices respect the model-implied decimals implied by those probabilities or instead favour the away side on the back of slightly stronger recent form from Haywards Heath Town[^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC — FA Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 25% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence high, 26 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Little Common vs Haywards Heath Town — Elo differential +68 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Little Common recent form** — LDLLL last 7: 1-1-5 (W-D-L), 0.57 PPG, 0.71 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Haywards Heath Town recent form** — LLWWL last 9: 3-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.11 PPG, 1.22 goals scored / 1.89 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .