# Forest Row vs Newhaven > FA Cup · Kickoff Fri 7 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37557) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Forest Row win:** 79% - **Draw:** 14% - **Newhaven win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model makes Forest Row heavy favourites after recent form dip ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Fri 7 Aug 2026 at 18:45 UTC in an FA Cup fixture, which makes this an early-round tie with cup implications for both clubs[^fact-1]. The timing and competition frame expectations: a single-match knockout where a single result settles progress[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint a contrast between cold home form and a mixed-but-more-productive away side. Forest Row arrive on the back of one game in the short form sample recorded as a loss in their last three results summary of W-D-L (0-0-1), producing 0.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 goals and conceding 2.00 per match in that window[^fact-4]. Newhaven’s broader recent sequence reads LLLWW across the last 10 matches, captured in a 3-2-5 (W-D-L) split, yielding 1.10 points per game with 2.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match in that period[^fact-5]. Those raw trends sit underneath a sizeable Elo gap: the model applies a home-adjusted Elo differential of +114 in favour of the home side[^fact-3]. That Elo edge is reflected in the model’s forecast, which heavily favours the home team at 79% probability, with the draw and away outcomes at 14% and 7% respectively — a 65 percentage-point gap to the nearest runner-up and a clear model signal[^fact-2]. Putting the two layers together, the model sees Forest Row’s club-level strength (as represented by Elo with home advantage) outweighing their short-term scoring dip, while Newhaven’s higher goals output in recent games has not been judged sufficient to close the intrinsic gap[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel The supplied facts do not include player names, injury lists or specific absences, so there is no ground to single out in-form individuals or heavy absentees from either side in this dataset[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Any personnel discussion must therefore be framed around team-level indicators: Forest Row’s recent matches show lower scoring and higher goals conceded per game in the small sample provided, which suggests defensive fragility or attacking bluntness at team level over that set of matches[^fact-4]. Newhaven’s recent ten-match sample shows more goals scored per match and a marginally higher points-per-game return, indicating the side has produced attacking returns more regularly in recent weeks despite a mixed overall record[^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the model’s outputs for this fixture[^fact-6]. The primary edge is structural: the model assigns 79% to the home outcome compared with market lines analysed (count of markets compared: 2), and highlights the home side as the clear favourite on probability alone[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The secondary edge flows from the Elo differential: with a +114 home-adjusted Elo gap, the model is effectively pricing a material quality advantage into the home win probability, which compresses the implied value in draw and away outcomes relative to the model’s estimate[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Because the supplied facts do not include the market odds themselves, the assessment of where explicit price value lies is confined to structure rather than specific decimal or fractional odds. The meaningful takeaways from the two-market comparison are therefore: the model’s 79% home probability is the dominant signal in both markets reviewed, and both the draw (14%) and away (7%) probabilities are small relative to that home weighting, creating a clear model ranking among outcomes[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to the home side, assigning a 79% chance of victory and treating draw and away as distant alternatives; this view is underpinned by a +114 Elo edge with home advantage applied and survives a short-term dip in Forest Row’s form and a higher goals-per-game figure from Newhaven across their recent ten-match sample[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 7 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC — FA Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 79% / Draw 14% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 65 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Forest Row vs Newhaven — Elo differential +114 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Forest Row recent form** — L last 1: 0-0-1 (W-D-L), 0.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Newhaven recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .