# Guernsey vs Crowborough Athletic > FA Cup · Kickoff Sat 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37618) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Guernsey win:** 33% - **Draw:** 33% - **Crowborough Athletic win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home-edge backed by model and Elo advantage ## The stage This is an FA Cup tie scheduled for a 13:00 UTC kickoff on Saturday, 8 August 2026, with the nominal home side holding the hosting advantage[^fact-1]. The competition context is single-match knockout football, where a result on the day decides progression; the model has established clear probabilities for the three possible outcomes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results and underlying ratings point in the same direction. The model assigns the home side a 75% chance of victory, with a 16% chance of a draw and an 8% chance for the away side[^fact-2]. That forecast is supported by an Elo differential of +138 points in favour of the hosts after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Raw recent-form numbers show modest scoring and defensive returns for both teams, but with a clear edge to the hosts when placed alongside the Elo gap. The home side’s last recorded short-form line is Win-Draw-Loss (W-D-L) over the most recent three matches, producing 1.00 point per game and averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The away side’s last ten-match snapshot reads LWDLW (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses), producing 1.10 points per game while averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those figures show the visitors create slightly more chances on average but also leak more at the back, and the magnitude of the Elo advantage suggests the hosts are expected to convert that defensive steadiness into a consistent match outcome[^fact-3]. ## Personnel No player-level or injury data is included in the supplied facts, so specific starting-line projections, in-form player spotlights or named absences cannot be asserted from the available dataset. The quantitative picture must therefore be read purely through club-level form and ratings: the hosts’ stability of one goal scored and conceded per game is the clearest available signal of balance in both phases of play[^fact-4], while the visitors’ higher scoring and higher concession rates point to a more open profile across their last ten matches[^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Two external market lines were compared against the internal model to produce the verdicts cited here[^fact-6]. The model’s probabilities — 75% home, 16% draw, 8% away — produce a pronounced gap between the expected and observed market consensus, and the Elo edge of +138 points corroborates the scale of the home advantage implied by the model[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Translated into match dynamics, the model is signalling a clear preference for a home victory based on both rating-based distance and recent-club outputs: the hosts’ tight scoring/defensive balance (1.00 goals for and against per match) contrasts with the visitors’ pattern of higher scoring and higher concession across a longer sample (1.40 goals for and 1.60 against per match), which on balance benefits the steadier side when the Elo gap is this size[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. The presence of only two external market lines in the head-to-head comparison means model-versus-market divergence was relatively straightforward to quantify[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the home side with a 75% chance of victory, supported by a +138 Elo differential and a comparative reading of recent form that favours defensive balance over an open visitor profile[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC — FA Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 75% / Draw 16% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GGY vs CRA — Elo differential +138 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GGY recent form** — D last 1: 0-1-0 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CRA recent form** — LWDLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .