# Liverpool vs Monaco > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37706) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 81% - **Draw:** 12% - **Monaco win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly favours the home side amid clear talent gaps ## The stage A mid-summer club friendly with shape — kickoff is Sun 9 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC[^fact-1]. This is a first-team runout in the Club Friendlies 1 slot[^fact-1]. The fixture carries the usual pre-season emphasis on tuning systems and fitness rather than competitive points, so small-sample noise should be expected[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On form lines, Liverpool arrive with a mixed return over the last 10 outings: WDLDL, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in that sequence[^fact-4]. That sequence has produced 1.40 points per game, with 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Monaco’s last-10 reads LLWDD — 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses — a slightly stronger recent return in points and attack, logged as 1.70 points per game and 2.00 goals scored with 1.80 conceded[^fact-5]. Despite Monaco’s marginally superior recent per-match returns, the predictive model places a very large edge on the home side: Home 81% / Draw 12% / Away 7%, with a high-confidence 69 percentage-point gap to the runner-up prediction[^fact-2]. That model view is also reflected in a substantial Elo advantage for the hosts: an Elo differential of +268 points (home advantage already applied) in Liverpool’s favour[^fact-3]. Taken together, short-term form leans slightly to Monaco on paper, while historic strength and the model overwhelmingly favour the home side[^fact-5][^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Liverpool’s most notable in-form contributor is Dominik Szoboszlai, who has 2 goals and 4 assists in his last 5 appearances and is carrying an average rating of 7.83 over that run[^fact-6]. Szoboszlai’s numbers suggest the team’s attacking creativity can be concentrated through a single influential performer[^fact-6]. Monaco’s recent creative spark is Maghnes Akliouche, who has supplied 3 assists in his last 5 appearances and holds an average rating of 7.42 in that period, despite not registering a goal in those five matches[^fact-7]. Akliouche’s output is assist-heavy, a sign of value in chance creation rather than finishing in the immediate sample[^fact-7]. Availability questions are asymmetric. Liverpool are without Giorgi Mamardashvili through injury; he logged 598 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-8]. Monaco are missing Caio Henrique through injury; he logged 60 minutes in the recent run prior to being unavailable[^fact-9]. The scale of those minute totals points to a heavier recent reliance on Liverpool’s absent goalkeeper figure than on Monaco’s absent player, at least by minutes played in the supplied sample[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities are sharply skewed: Home 81% / Draw 12% / Away 7% with high confidence and a 69-percentage-point lead over the next-placed outcome[^fact-2]. Two markets were analysed against that model view, and the comparison favours the model’s heavy home lean[^fact-10][^fact-2]. The clearest statistical signals backing the home selection are the +268 Elo-point edge after home advantage and the model’s dominant probability distribution, both of which point to an outsized expectation of a home win[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Where the market might be misreading the short-term noise is in weighting Monaco’s slightly better last-10 points per game and goals per match, which the model appears to have absorbed but ultimately judged insufficient to overcome the Elo and longer-term signal[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. The personnel picture reinforces that split: Liverpool still possess a high-impact attacking outlet in Dominik Szoboszlai with 2 goals and 4 assists in five and a 7.83 average rating[^fact-6], while Monaco’s primary creative runner in this sample, Maghnes Akliouche, shows three assists and a 7.42 rating but no goals in five[^fact-7]. The model’s confidence implies it sees these inputs consolidating into a strong home probability rather than an open coin flip[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic and clear: a strong home probability driven by a +268 Elo edge and a Home 81% projection with a 69-point confidence buffer to the runner-up[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Recent short-form numbers give Monaco a modest attacking tick, but they do not offset the model’s consolidated advantage and the distribution of recent contributions from Szoboszlai and Akliouche[^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Two markets were compared to that model view and the analysis found the model’s home tilt intact[^fact-10][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 81% / Draw 12% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 69 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs ASM — Elo differential +268 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — WDLDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ASM recent form** — LLWDD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.83. [^fact-7]: **ASM in-form player** — Maghnes Akliouche — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-8]: **LIV key absence** — Giorgi Mamardashvili out (injury), 598 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **ASM key absence** — Caio Henrique out (injury), 60 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .