# Rangers vs Hibernian > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37716) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Rangers win:** 63% - **Draw:** 20% - **Hibernian win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | btts | Yes | 1.66 | bet365 | 64% | +3.3 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Rangers clear favourites as Chermiti’s form meets Hibs resilience ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sun 9 Aug 2026 at 15:00 UTC, setting up a Sunday-afternoon test for both sides. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum The model gives the home side a commanding edge: 63% to win, with draws at 20% and the away win at 18% — a 43 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high-confidence verdict from the model. [^fact-2] That confidence is underpinned by a substantive Elo advantage: Rangers carry a +230-point edge once home advantage is applied. [^fact-3] Recent form frames the picture further. Rangers’ last 10 reads as D W L L L but converts to a 5-1-4 W-D-L split, yielding 1.60 points per game while averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Hibernian have been patchier: their last 10 are L L W W L, a 3-2-5 W-D-L record, producing 1.10 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5] Those numbers show a side with clearer attacking output and higher points efficiency on the home side; Hibernian’s figures point to a much lower scoring profile and tighter goal balance. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ## Personnel The in-form profile for the home team highlights Youssef Chermiti, who arrives with three goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.41 across that run. [^fact-7] For the visitors, Jordan Obita is the standout recent performer with one goal and two assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.04 over the same span. [^fact-8] Availability issues cut into both sides. Rangers will be without Ryan Naderi through injury; he accounted for 278 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-9] Hibernian are missing Jamie McGrath through injury; his recent contribution amounted to 475 minutes. [^fact-10] Those absences matter differently: the home side retains a clearly higher goals-per-game trajectory even without Naderi, while Hibernian lose a player who logged considerably more minutes in the recent sample. [^fact-4] [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model identifies one market where the statistical edge is notable versus the public price. Both Teams to Score (Yes) is modelled at 64% probability versus a market price implying a lower likelihood at 1.66 on bet365, an edge of 3.3 percentage points in the model’s favour, although the model flags this signal with low confidence. [^fact-6] The model’s overall match probabilities (63% home / 20% draw / 18% away) provide context for other lines, and those three markets were the ones compared against the model in this analysis. [^fact-2] [^fact-11] Given Rangers’ higher goals-scored average (2.60) and Hibernian’s much lower scoring rate (1.10), the Both Teams to Score angle is plausible within the model’s internal logic: the home side’s attacking output raises the chance of scoring, while Hibernian do register chances albeit at a lower rate. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] [^fact-6] That said, the low confidence tag on the BTTS edge advises caution: the statistical projection favours BTTS more than the market, but the model does not treat that edge as robust. [^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans strongly to the home win — 63% — supported by a +230 Elo cushion and superior attacking returns (2.60 goals per match) versus Hibernian’s subdued scoring profile (1.10 goals per match). [^fact-2] [^fact-3] [^fact-4] [^fact-5] Expect Rangers to carry the initiative, with Chermiti’s recent form a key attacking factor, while Hibernian’s compact numbers and the loss of McGrath complicate their task. [^fact-7] [^fact-8] [^fact-10] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 20% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 43 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — RAN vs HIB — Elo differential +230 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **RAN recent form** — DWLLL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HIB recent form** — LLWWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 1.66 at bet365, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **RAN in-form player** — Youssef Chermiti — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-8]: **HIB in-form player** — Jordan Obita — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-9]: **RAN key absence** — Ryan Naderi out (injury), 278 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **HIB key absence** — Jamie McGrath out (injury), 475 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .