# Rangers vs Hibernian > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37716) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Rangers 1–2 Hibernian ## Model verdict - **Rangers win:** 63% - **Draw:** 20% - **Hibernian win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo Gap and Chermiti Threat Shape Sunday Clash ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sun 9 Aug 2026 at 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The timing marks an early-season encounter in which both sides will be looking to set a tone for their domestic campaigns[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model presents a clear home lean: Home 63% / Draw 20% / Away 18%[^fact-2]. That projection sits on top of a substantial Elo advantage for the hosts — an applied 230-point edge for Rangers over Hibernian[^fact-3]. Those two signals combine to make the balance of probability strongly favour the home side[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Recent results underline the divergence. Rangers have produced a sequence recorded as DWLLL across their last 10 outings, a 5-1-4 split (W-D-L) and an output of 1.60 points per game, with 2.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hibernian arrive on a less productive run: LLWWL across ten, a 3-2-5 split (W-D-L), 1.10 points per game, and a statistical profile of 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The numerical story is straightforward — Rangers are generating more attacking value and slightly more defensive leakage, while Hibernian are quieter in both boxes[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Rangers’ in-form attacker Youssef Chermiti has delivered three goals and one assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.41[^fact-7]. That short-term productivity is a clear component of the home side’s offensive profile[^fact-7]. On the visitors’ side, Jordan Obita has contributed one goal and two assists over his last five outings and carries an average rating of 7.04[^fact-8]. Obita stands out as a primary creative outlet in Hibernian’s recent sequence[^fact-8]. Availability issues matter. Rangers will be without Ryan Naderi through injury; he logged 278 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. Hibernian’s selection is similarly dented by the injury absence of Jamie McGrath, who accumulated 475 minutes in the recent run before missing time[^fact-10]. Both absences are non-trivial in minutes terms and will force tactical adjustments on either side[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Market comparisons were performed across three markets[^fact-11]. The primary edge identified by the model is on Both Teams to Score = Yes: the model estimates a 64% probability versus a market price implying roughly 1.66 on bet365, producing an edge of 3.3 percentage points — the model flags that signal with low confidence[^fact-6]. The arithmetic behind that observation is material: the hosts’ higher goals-for rate and the visitors’ modest goals-per-game suggest a scenario where both sides finding the net is plausible, but the model explicitly marks the confidence on this call as low[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. No other explicit market edges are listed in the supplied analysis, but the overall model lean toward the home result is sizable and was derived alongside two other market comparisons[^fact-2][^fact-11]. The combination of a 63% home probability and a 230-point Elo buffer informs why the model favours the hosts across the match markets even while isolating BTTS as the single market with a detectable pricing gap[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The concise takeaway: the model strongly leans home — 63% to win — underpinned by a 230-point Elo advantage and Rangers’ superior recent attacking output, while Hibernian’s lower goals numbers and key absentee add to the uphill task[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10]. The most notable market discrepancy is a modest edge for Both Teams to Score = Yes (model 64% vs market ~1.66), though that particular signal carries low confidence in the model’s view[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 20% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 43 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — RAN vs HIB — Elo differential +230 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **RAN recent form** — DWLLL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HIB recent form** — LLWWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 1.66 at bet365, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **RAN in-form player** — Youssef Chermiti — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-8]: **HIB in-form player** — Jordan Obita — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-9]: **RAN key absence** — Ryan Naderi out (injury), 278 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **HIB key absence** — Jamie McGrath out (injury), 475 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .