# Cracovia Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37766) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Cracovia Kraków win:** 32% - **Draw:** 37% - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 32% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Raków’s form advantage meets Cracovia’s stubborn home test ## The stage This is an Ekstraklasa fixture kicking off on Sun 16 Aug 2026 at 18:15 UTC; Cracovia are listed as the home side for this match[^fact-1]. The calendar slot and the domestic context make this an early-season measuring stick for both clubs as the campaign settles into rhythm[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent numbers point in one clear direction. Cracovia arrive on a sequence recorded as DDDDD over their last 10 matches with a record of 1-7-2 (W-D-L), averaging 1.00 point per game and scoring 0.90 while conceding 1.40 goals per match[^fact-4]. Raków’s run is materially stronger: DWWLW in their last 10, a 5-4-1 record, 1.90 points per game, and a 1.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded profile[^fact-5]. The rating-based gap with home advantage applied sits at an Elo differential of -45 points in favor of Raków, signalling a measurable quality edge despite Cracovia hosting[^fact-3]. The model delivers an evenly split probability across outcomes — Home 33% / Draw 33% / Away 33% — but notes low confidence, with essentially no gap to the runner-up decision[^fact-2]. That flat model view is worth treating as cautionary: empirical form and Elo both tilt towards the visitors even as the model’s internal uncertainty keeps the headline probabilities level[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Cracovia’s most notable in-form contributor on the stat sheet is Ajdin Hasic: zero goals but two assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.25[^fact-6]. Hasic looks like the creative fulcrum given Cracovia’s overall low goals-per-game return, but his output so far has been more creation than finishing[^fact-6][^fact-4]. The home side’s body of work has also been affected by the unavailability of Beno Selan, a player missing through injury who logged 126 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence[^fact-8]. That limited recent pitch time removes one more option from a side already struggling for attacking returns[^fact-8][^fact-4]. Raków carry momentum in the opposite direction, led by Jean Carlos Silva whose last four appearances produced two goals and four assists and an average rating of 7.60 — a high-impact sequence relative to the team’s attacking numbers[^fact-7]. The visitors’ defensive numbers are also stronger on paper, conceding 1.00 goals per match in the sample cited[^fact-5]. Raków have a clear personnel loss as well: Fran Tudor is out injured after contributing 494 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence, removing experienced minutes from their lineup[^fact-9]. The balance of form and availability still suggests Raków have more forward thrust and defensive solidity available even with Tudor absent[^fact-7][^fact-9][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the model’s projections, providing the comparative baseline for where market prices diverge from model output[^fact-10]. The model itself is agnostic at the top level, presenting a three-way split: Home 33% / Draw 33% / Away 33%[^fact-2]. Against that backdrop, the clearest analytical tilt comes from combining the sample metrics: Raków’s superior points-per-game and goal differential across the recent window (1.90 PPG; 1.90 scored / 1.00 conceded) versus Cracovia’s 1.00 PPG and negative scoring balance (0.90 scored / 1.40 conceded)[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The Elo differential of -45 with home advantage applied reinforces the numerical edge to the visitors[^fact-3]. Markets showing a neutral three-way pricing are therefore matching the model’s headline lack of separation, but the underlying match-flow indicators point at an away-side advantage that the model flags with low confidence[^fact-2][^fact-10][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model’s headline probabilities are flat and carry low confidence, but form and Elo together give Raków the clearer momentum and quality edge; Cracovia’s attacking output and a recent injury to Beno Selan blunt the home side’s options while Jean Carlos Silva’s recent productivity amplifies Raków’s threat[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-8][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 33% / Away 33% (source: model; confidence low, 0 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CRA vs RAK — Elo differential -45 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CRA recent form** — DDDDD last 10: 1-7-2 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RAK recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **CRA in-form player** — Ajdin Hasic — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-7]: **RAK in-form player** — Jean Carlos Silva — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.60. [^fact-8]: **CRA key absence** — Beno Selan out (injury), 126 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **RAK key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 494 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .