# Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen > Eredivisie · Kickoff Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37783) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Willem II win:** 8% - **Draw:** 17% - **NEC Nijmegen win:** 75% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Dominant model backs NEC amid huge Elo gap ## The stage Saturday’s kick-off pits a struggling home side against an out-of-form visitor in an early-season Eredivisie test, scheduled for 14:30 UTC on 15 August 2026[^fact-1]. The fixture’s competitive importance is straightforward: a chance for NEC to consolidate momentum on the road and for Willem II to arrest an alarming run while playing at home[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The balance of form tilts sharply towards NEC. The model assigns NEC a 75% chance of victory, with the draw and home win at 17% and 8% respectively, and it reports a high confidence gap of 58 percentage points over the runner-up projection[^fact-2]. That projection aligns with an Elo differential that heavily favours the visitors: Willem II sit 214 Elo points below NEC once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent results underline that divergence. Willem II’s last 10 matches read DLLDL — a 0-2-8 record (W-D-L) producing 0.20 points per game and just 0.80 goals scored while conceding 1.80 per match[^fact-4]. NEC are markedly steadier: WLDDD over their most recent 10, a 4-4-2 record (W-D-L) delivering 1.60 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw outputs show a side that can both create at comparable rates (1.80 goals scored each) and a clear defensive edge for NEC (1.30 conceded vs 1.80 conceded per game for Willem II) — a combination that helps explain the model’s heavy lean[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Spotlight players on form are more subtle than prolific. Willem II’s most in-form figure in the provided set is Emilio Kehrer, who has produced 0 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances while carrying an average rating of 7.10[^fact-6]. That output signals influence without finishing, which matters little if goals remain scarce across the team given their 0.80 scoring average[^fact-4][^fact-6]. NEC’s match-level fulcrum appears in Sami Ouaissa: 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.26[^fact-7]. Those contributions slot into a slightly more productive NEC side overall (1.80 goals scored per match), and Ouaissa’s assist numbers suggest a creative role even if finishing remains distributed[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The most important personnel caveat for NEC is the enforced absence of Bryan Linssen through injury; he totals 695 minutes in the recent run and his unavailability is the clearest selection uncertainty listed[^fact-8]. That loss matters only in context: the model still projects a large away edge despite Linssen being out[^fact-2][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities are decisive: 75% for an away win, 17% for a draw and 8% for a home win[^fact-2]. Two external markets were analysed against the model’s forecast, and those comparisons underpin the identification of where bookmakers diverge from the model’s view[^fact-9]. The chief structural reason for the gap is the combination of a 214-point Elo deficit for Willem II (after home advantage) and the low-scoring productivity on the home side (0.80 goals per match), which together compress realistic home-winning scenarios[^fact-3][^fact-4]. Conversely, NEC’s defensive solidity (1.30 conceded per match) and superior recent points-per-game (1.60) underpin the model’s away lean even with the noted absence of a 695-minute contributor for NEC[^fact-5][^fact-8]. Given the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up and the two markets that were compared, the principal edge emerges where market prices underweight NEC’s probability implied by the model and overestimate Willem II’s chances — a mismatch traceable to the Elo and form deltas rather than any single in-form name[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model’s view is unambiguous: an away victory is the dominant outcome, driven by a 75% model probability, a 214-point Elo advantage, and clear differences in recent form and defensive concession rates[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Personnel notes temper the picture only slightly — NEC will miss Bryan Linssen, who logged 695 minutes in the recent run, while creative contributions from Sami Ouaissa and Emilio Kehrer remain modest but relevant[^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 17% / Away 75% (source: model; confidence high, 58 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — WIL vs NEC — Elo differential -214 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **WIL recent form** — DLLDL last 10: 0-2-8 (W-D-L), 0.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NEC recent form** — WLDDD last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **WIL in-form player** — Emilio Kehrer — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-7]: **NEC in-form player** — Sami Ouaissa — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-8]: **NEC key absence** — Bryan Linssen out (injury), 695 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .