# Borussia Dortmund vs Roma > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37786) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Borussia Dortmund win:** 36% - **Draw:** 40% - **Roma win:** 23% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model favours draw despite Roma on hotter run ## The stage This is a summer tune-up that carries more installation work than consequence: a Club Friendlies fixture kicking off Sat 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Recent results paint two different trajectories. Borussia Dortmund arrive with a LWWWL sequence in their last ten matches, recorded as 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, producing 1.80 points per game and an attacking return of 1.90 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match. [^fact-4] Roma, by contrast, are on a significantly hotter streak: WWWWW in the last ten reads 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, yielding 2.20 points per game with 2.10 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded on average. [^fact-5] Elo still nudges the balance toward the home side after accounting for match location: Dortmund enjoy a +71-point Elo differential once home advantage is applied. [^fact-3] Those inputs produce a model that is unusually split. The model’s probabilities sit Home 36% / Draw 40% / Away 23%, a distribution where the draw is the single likeliest outcome but the margins are narrow enough that confidence is flagged as low (a 4 percentage-point gap to the runner-up). [^fact-2] ## Personnel Dortmund’s attacking momentum is tied to Serhou Guirassy, who has three goals and no assists across his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.79. [^fact-6] Roma’s forward charge is led by Donyell Malen, who has four goals and two assists in his last five games and an average rating of 7.21. [^fact-7] Both teams will also be missing regular starters on the day: Dortmund will be without Nico Schlotterbeck due to injury, a player who logged 720 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-8] Roma’s comparable defensive absence is Zeki Çelik, also out injured after contributing 719 minutes in the same block. [^fact-9] Those simultaneous absences level the playing field defensively: Dortmund lose a high-minute centre-back presence, while Roma lose a high-minute full-back. Neither side can claim a clean bill of personnel superiority based on the supplied minutes. [^fact-8][^fact-9] ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the market. [^fact-10] - Match result (three-way): the model produces a three-way distribution that favours the draw at 40% while assigning 36% to the home side and 23% to the away side. The draw’s primacy in the model is driven by a combination of Dortmund’s Elo edge at home and Roma’s superior recent form, yielding a stalemate probability that is higher than either side’s outright win probability. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] - Goals market: the model’s underlying attack and defence rates (Dortmund 1.90 scored / 1.10 conceded; Roma 2.10 scored / 1.00 conceded) produce an expectation that this match will be contested between relatively high attacking outputs and mid-range conceded figures for both teams. That balance helps explain why the model sits between an open game and a competitive draw. [^fact-4][^fact-5] The model’s confidence is explicitly low in the primary market — a 4-percentage-point gap to the runner-up — which means the calculated edges versus market pricing should be treated as tentative rather than decisive. [^fact-2][^fact-10] ## Verdict The model leans toward a draw as the single likeliest outcome, born from the tension between Dortmund’s home Elo advantage and Roma’s superior recent form; low model confidence and key defensive absences on both sides keep this one framed as a close, unpredictable friendly rather than a one-sided affair. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 36% / Draw 40% / Away 23% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BVB vs ROM — Elo differential +71 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BVB recent form** — LWWWL last 10: 6-0-4 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ROM recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **BVB in-form player** — Serhou Guirassy — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.79. [^fact-7]: **ROM in-form player** — Donyell Malen — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.21. [^fact-8]: **BVB key absence** — Nico Schlotterbeck out (injury), 720 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **ROM key absence** — Zeki Çelik out (injury), 719 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .