# Udinese vs Calcio Padova > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Sat 15 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37789) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Udinese win:** 83% - **Draw:** 11% - **Calcio Padova win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge driven by Elo gulf and model confidence ## The stage This is a one-off Coppa Italia tie with a clear scheduling stamp: kickoff Sat 15 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC, played under cup knockout pressure[^fact-1]. The competition context compresses margin for error and elevates squad-management choices; this tie is a short window to advance rather than a league marathon[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent results tell different stories on paper. Udinese’s last 10 string reads LLWWD, yielding a 4-2-4 record (W‑D‑L) and 1.40 points per game, with 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Padova’s last 10 are WWLWW, a 4-0-6 record (W‑D‑L) and 1.20 points per game, producing 0.90 goals and conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-5]. The model places a heavy probability on the home side: Home 83% / Draw 11% / Away 6% — a dominant home verdict with a high-confidence spread to the runner-up scenario[^fact-2]. That projection is supported by a substantial Elo differential: Udinese holds a +364 Elo edge with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. In short, recent form is only part of the picture; the Elo gap and model probability both lean decisively toward the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Udinese’s in-form mention is Arthur Atta, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.05 across that span[^fact-6]. Such numbers indicate direct influence in recent matches while contributing to Udinese’s goalscoring rate of 1.20 per match in the last 10[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Padova’s current form player to note is Christian Pastina: 1 goal, 0 assists in his last five and an average rating of 7.37[^fact-7]. Padova’s defensive profile looks more porous on recent metrics — conceding 1.40 per match in their last 10 — which frames Pastina’s contributions in a different light[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The absences are clear and quantifiable. Udinese will be missing Jesper Karlström through injury; he accounted for 675 minutes in the recent run before his absence was recorded[^fact-8]. Padova will be without Francesco Belli, who logged 444 minutes in the recent sample prior to his injury absence[^fact-9]. Those are the two heaviest personnel holes listed for each side and matter differently: the longer recent minutes for Karlström underline the depth of the loss for Udinese’s recent setup, while Belli’s 444 minutes indicates a meaningful gap for Padova as well — but those absences must be weighed against the larger Elo and model edges[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s top signal is the home outcome: an 83% probability for Udinese to win, with draw and away probability at 11% and 6% respectively[^fact-2]. Markets analysed number two, and both were compared against the model’s positions in this match-up[^fact-10]. The clearest edge is the raw model-vs-market divergence on the outright: the model’s 83% home projection creates the largest single expected-value gap when markets price the fixture lower for the hosts — that is the primary structural value the model surfaces here[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Secondary angles flow from the Elo picture: a +364 Elo differential with home applied signals both quality gap and home amplification, which corroborates the model’s heavy leaning to the home side and suggests markets underestimating that combined effect could be the second source of value[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-10]. No other numeric market comparisons are provided for supplementary lines, so the model’s outright-home projection and the measured Elo advantage constitute the clearest, documented disparities against the two markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model’s view is unambiguous: Udinese is a strong favourite (Home 83%) and the contest is shaped by a large Elo gap (+364) that outweighs recent form nuances; the available market comparisons (two markets analysed) are where the model finds its top edges[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-10]. The pre-match picture therefore tilts heavily toward the hosts, with absences and form notes secondary to the dominant statistical and model signals[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 15 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 83% / Draw 11% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 72 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — UDI vs PAD — Elo differential +364 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **UDI recent form** — LLWWD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PAD recent form** — WWLWW last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **UDI in-form player** — Arthur Atta — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-7]: **PAD in-form player** — Christian Pastina — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-8]: **UDI key absence** — Jesper Karlström  out (injury), 675 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **PAD key absence** — Francesco Belli out (injury), 444 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .