# Venezia vs Modena > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Sat 15 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37800) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Venezia win:** 73% - **Draw:** 18% - **Modena win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Venezia’s control vs Modena’s fragility shapes Coppa Italia test ## The stage This Coppa Italia tie kicks off on Sat 15 Aug 2026 at 18:45 UTC, a single‑match knockout with little room for margin for error[^fact-1]. The timing and competition format mean both sides can use the fixture to set a tone for the season, with immediate progress the only objective[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Venezia arrive on the back of a string of mostly positive results: a sequence labelled WDWWD in their last ten games, producing 2.20 points per game and an attacking return of 1.90 goals scored while conceding just 0.60 per match[^fact-2]. That profile points to a side striking a good balance between offensive returns and defensive solidity over the recent run[^fact-2]. Modena’s last ten results read LLWLL, amounting to 1.10 points per game and a slightly below‑par attacking output of 1.20 goals while allowing 1.30 per match[^fact-3]. Those numbers underline a team whose recent form has been patchy and whose goal difference metrics are less flattering than their opponents’[^fact-3]. On pure momentum, the underlying data favours Venezia: higher points per game, more goals scored and fewer conceded across the recent sample, suggesting the green‑black side enter the tie with clearer forward momentum[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Venezia’s attacking rhythm has been driven in part by Issa Doumbia, who has contributed two goals and one assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.26 across that stretch[^fact-4]. That level of contribution and consistency flags Doumbia as the most in‑form individual on the pitch for Venezia[^fact-4]. Modena’s brightest recent performer is Yanis Massolin, with one goal and one assist in his last four matches and an average rating of 7.22 over that period[^fact-5]. Massolin represents Modena’s clearest creative outlet in the short sample provided[^fact-5]. A tangible blow for Venezia is the absence of Marin Šverko, ruled out with injury after accumulating 540 minutes in the recent run; his unavailability removes a reliable minutes‑accumulator from the manager’s rotation[^fact-6]. That loss will force a personnel tweak for Venezia and could affect their usual defensive patterns given Šverko’s recent playing time[^fact-6]. ## Where the model sees value — top edges vs the market, with odds The dataset supplied contains no market prices, so comparison to bookmaker odds cannot be produced from the facts at hand[^fact-1][^fact-2][^fact-3]. Despite that limitation, the objective profile points to clear analytical edges: - Venezia’s superior points per game and a markedly lower goals‑against rate over the recent run create an edge for outcomes tied to match control and defensive resilience[^fact-2]. - Modena’s recent numbers show both fewer points per game and a higher goals‑against rate, indicating vulnerability to teams that press and sustain attack phases; that vulnerability is the primary axis where value would exist if market prices understate it[^fact-3]. - Individual form is concentrated on a couple of players: Issa Doumbia’s recent two goals and one assist with a 7.26 average rating make him a high‑impact figure for Venezia, while Yanis Massolin’s one goal and one assist with a 7.22 average rating is Modena’s clearest match‑winner candidate; edges tied to these players’ direct goal involvement should be considered relative to market prices when those prices are available[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - The absence of Marin Šverko, with 540 minutes logged in the recent run, slightly blunts Venezia’s depth and should be weighted when assessing their defensive lines and substitution patterns if markets ignore it[^fact-6]. Without explicit odds, the safest market advice from the supplied facts is directional: markets that underprice Venezia’s defensive stability and Doumbia’s recent end‑product relative to Modena’s inconsistent run would present analytical value; conversely, markets that ignore Šverko’s absence and treat both sides as evenly balanced could be overstating Modena’s chances given the provided performance metrics[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The numerical case from recent form leans toward Venezia: higher points per game, more goals scored and a much lower goals‑against figure across the sample, plus an in‑form attacker in Issa Doumbia, combine to make Venezia the stronger proposition on the evidence supplied—with the caveat that Marin Šverko’s absence removes a piece of recent continuity for Venezia and narrows certain tactical options[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 15 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **VEN recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **MOD recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **VEN in-form player** — Issa Doumbia — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-5]: **MOD in-form player** — Yanis Massolin — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-6]: **VEN key absence** — Marin Šverko  out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .