# Famalicão vs Marítimo > Liga Portugal · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37838) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Famalicão win:** 83% - **Draw:** 11% - **Marítimo win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model overwhelmingly favours the home side as clear pre-match narrative ## The stage This Liga Portugal fixture kicks off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC and pits the home side against the visitors in a matchup the model treats as heavily one-sided[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The structured facts supplied do not include a stadium name or deeper competition context beyond the kickoff and league timings[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Famalicão arrive with a recent sequence recorded as WDDWD over their last 10 matches, which the facts translate into 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, yielding 2.00 points per game and an output of 1.30 goals scored while conceding 0.80 per match[^fact-4]. Marítimo’s last 10 read LWLDL — 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses — producing 1.00 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That basic profile gives Famalicão both a higher points rate and a cleaner defensive record in the supplied window[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Those form differences sit alongside a massive Elo gap once home advantage is applied: Famalicão carry an Elo edge of +372 points over Marítimo in the supplied numbers, a margin large enough to dominate the match-level expectation in Elo-derived models[^fact-3]. The model verdict itself is decisive: Home 83% / Draw 11% / Away 6%, with the model reporting a high-confidence margin to the runner-up (72 percentage points gap to the next outcome) — in short, the stats and the model both place a heavy premium on the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel The in-form spotlight on the home side lands on Rafa Soares, who has produced 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.10 in the supplied form block[^fact-6]. On the away side the most notable recent contributor is Félix Correia, who also has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.49 as provided in the facts[^fact-7]. Those are the only individual performance figures included in the dataset; no additional squad availability, suspension or injury information is supplied in the structured facts to nuance personnel expectations[^fact-1]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary edges are stark and concentrated. It assigns the home outcome an 83% probability versus a draw at 11% and an away win at 6% — a spread that signals the model sees the contest as heavily slanted toward the hosts[^fact-2]. That stance is supported by the +372 Elo differential once home advantage is applied, which aligns with expectations of a one-sided match in Elo-derived forecasting[^fact-3]. Two markets were compared against the model in the supplied analysis; the facts list that two markets were analysed, though market prices themselves are not provided in the dataset[^fact-8]. Given the model probabilities and the Elo gap, the clearest statistical edges in the supplied information are: (1) backing the home outcome as the overwhelming baseline; and (2) expecting a match where the home side limits chances — the hosts’ conceded rate of 0.80 goals per match against the visitors’ 1.80 suggests defensive control in the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Those are the top quantitative contrasts available from the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unambiguous: the home side is forecast overwhelmingly to collect the positive result, supported by superior recent points-per-game, a tighter defensive record in the supplied window, and a +372 Elo advantage once home advantage is applied — the model places the home probability at 83% compared with 11% for a draw and 6% for an away win[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC — Liga Portugal [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 83% / Draw 11% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 72 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FCF vs CSM — Elo differential +372 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FCF recent form** — WDDWD last 10: 5-5-0 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CSM recent form** — LWLDL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FCF in-form player** — Rafa Soares — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-7]: **CSM in-form player** — Félix Correia — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.49. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .