# SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37849) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 9% - **Draw:** 17% - **St. Louis City win:** 74% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to visitors as Hartel carries form ## The stage This is a Major League Soccer fixture kicking off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC, with the usual competitive stakes attached to a regular-season meeting[^fact-1]. The match will be viewed through a lens where the model gives a lopsided probability split that heavily favours the away side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum St. Louis City arrive on the back of a much clearer upward run: their recent sequence reads WWWWD in the last 10 and that block represents a 6-1-3 record (W-D-L) across that span, with 1.90 points per game and scoring 1.70 while conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-5]. San Jose’s recent ledger is patchier — DLWLL across the last 10, recorded as a 4-3-3 (W-D-L) pattern with 1.50 points per game and 2.20 goals scored against 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The Elo comparison after home advantage is applied gives San Jose a marginal edge of +2 points on paper, so raw ratings are near-parity even if form favours the visitors[^fact-3]. The model’s verdict, however, puts substantially more weight on St. Louis’s recent momentum: Home 9% / Draw 17% / Away 74%[^fact-2]. That gap is large and described by the model as confident — a 57 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel San Jose’s sharpest form player in recent matches is Preston Judd, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last 4 appearances and an average rating of 7.10 in that run[^fact-6]. The club will be missing Timo Werner through injury; Werner has accounted for 420 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence[^fact-8]. St. Louis’s in-form fulcrum is Marcel Hartel, with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and a standout average rating of 8.21 over that period[^fact-7]. St. Louis will also be without Célio Pompeu through injury for this match[^fact-9]. Each side therefore carries a clear recent performer and a notable absence: Judd and Werner for San Jose[^fact-6][^fact-8], Hartel and Pompeu for St. Louis[^fact-7][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s clean probability split — Home 9% / Draw 17% / Away 74% — is the baseline for value assessment[^fact-2]. Two markets were compared against the model when identifying edges[^fact-10]. The headline signal is that the away outcome is heavily favoured by the model relative to the home side, driven by St. Louis’s stronger recent form and higher average output per match in the latest window[^fact-5][^fact-2]. Markets analysed (two in total) were used to contrast implied market prices with the model’s internal prices; the model’s away price is the dominant divergence from the market, and the model expresses high confidence in that divergence through a 57 percentage-point margin to the next-most-likely outcome[^fact-10][^fact-2]. With an Elo differential of just +2 to San Jose once home advantage is applied, the model’s overweight on St. Louis indicates the algorithm is leaning more on form and recent player influence than raw ratings[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively toward the visitors: St. Louis’s recent winning sequence, tidy goals-for and goals-against trend, and the presence of a high-performing creator in Marcel Hartel combine to push the model to an away outcome at 74%, with the home win assessed at 9% and the draw at 17%[^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 17% / Away 74% (source: model; confidence high, 57 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SJE vs LOU — Elo differential +2 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SJE recent form** — DLWLL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LOU recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SJE in-form player** — Preston Judd — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-7]: **LOU in-form player** — Marcel Hartel — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.21. [^fact-8]: **SJE key absence** — Timo Werner out (injury), 420 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **LOU key absence** — Célio Pompeu  out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .