# Burnley vs West Ham United > Championship · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37874) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Burnley win:** 19% - **Draw:** 33% - **West Ham United win:** 48% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans strongly to the visitors on form and rating gap ## The stage This is a Championship fixture kicking off on Sun 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC in which Burnley host West Ham United[^fact-1]. The match carries league points and table momentum in the early season window described by the competition tag[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Burnley arrive on a poor run: their last 10 reads DLDLL, equating to a 0-3-7 W-D-L split and just 0.30 points per game; they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. West Ham United look materially brighter over the same sample, posting WLLLW for a 4-2-4 W-D-L split with 1.40 points per game and averages of 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded[^fact-5]. The model applies an Elo-derived edge against Burnley of -56 points with home advantage already factored in[^fact-3], and its forecast weights that gap heavily: it gives the home side 19%, a draw 33% and the away side 48% probability of victory — the model’s top pick is 15 percentage points clear of the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Burnley’s most noticeable in-form contributor in recent outings is Jaidon Anthony, who has one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.73[^fact-6]. West Ham United’s leading recent creator is Jarrod Bowen, with one goal and three assists in his last five and an average rating of 7.16[^fact-7]. A consequential absence for Burnley is Mike Tresor, who is out injured after a recent run totalling 18 minutes[^fact-8]. Those availability notes matter when comparing attacking returns: Burnley’s low scoring average in the last 10 matches aligns with Anthony shouldering a larger share of creative and finishing responsibility[^fact-4][^fact-6], while West Ham United’s healthier scoring and defensive balance match Bowen’s higher recent output[^fact-5][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities (Home 19% / Draw 33% / Away 48%) create a clear hierarchy and a sizable away lean[^fact-2]. That view is supported by an Elo differential of -56 in favour of West Ham United after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Markets were analysed against the model in two separate markets[^fact-9], and the model’s largest single gap sits on the away side given the combination of Burnley’s 0.30 PPG across the last 10 matches and West Ham United’s 1.40 PPG over the same period[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Concretely, the model makes three linked points: the away probability is the highest of the three outcomes[^fact-2]; the Elo gap tilts objective strength to West Ham United[^fact-3]; and Burnley’s low output and recent absence of Mike Tresor reduce home attacking potency[^fact-4][^fact-8]. Those are the mechanics behind the model’s separation from market prices in the two markets analysed[^fact-9][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the visitors: West Ham United are the clear projected winners on form, per-match returns and Elo (away 48% vs home 19%), while Burnley’s recent scoring, defensive fragility and the loss of Mike Tresor explain much of the gap[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC — Championship [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 33% / Away 48% (source: model; confidence high, 15 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs WHU — Elo differential -56 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 0-3-7 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WHU recent form** — WLLLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **BUR in-form player** — Jaidon Anthony — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.73. [^fact-7]: **WHU in-form player** — Jarrod Bowen  — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-8]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .