# Frosinone vs Juve Stabia > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37880) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Frosinone win:** 69% - **Draw:** 23% - **Juve Stabia win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy favourites on paper as cup curtain-raiser looms ## The stage This is a straight Coppa Italia tie with a single-match imperative: progress or exit. Kick-off is Sun 16 Aug 2026 at 16:00 UTC, the one-off fixture that opens competitive action and sets the tone for both squads' early season plans[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Frosinone arrive in clear momentum, winning eight, drawing two and losing none across their last ten outings — an 8-2-0 record that has produced 2.60 points per game and an attacking return of 2.40 goals scored and only 0.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Juve Stabia’s recent run is markedly weaker: a 3-4-3 line in their last ten that yields 1.30 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model quantifies that gulf: a 277-point Elo edge in favour of the home side after accounting for venue advantage[^fact-3]. That gap manifests in the model’s match probabilities — Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 9% — a clear tilt towards the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Frosinone’s in-form hub is Giacomo Calò, who has produced three goals and three assists in his last five appearances while carrying an average match rating of 7.89[^fact-6]. His output is driving the side’s attacking numbers and is a reliable source of goal involvement in this window[^fact-6]. The most consequential absence for the home team is Sergio Kalaj (injury), a missing piece listed as unavailable[^fact-8]. For Juve Stabia, Alessio Cacciamani is the notable attacking contributor of late: two assists across his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.05[^fact-7]. The visitors’ headwind is the absence of Salim Diakité through injury; Diakité logged 539 minutes in Juve Stabia’s recent run and his unavailability removes a sizeable chunk of their recent on-field minutes[^fact-9]. Those personnel notes compound the numerical advantage already visible in form and Elo for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities are explicit: Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 9%[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against that model total two separate lines[^fact-10]. Taken together, the data identify two clear conclusions: first, the probability mass is concentrated on the home win, reflecting both the Elo differential (+277 with home advantage) and Frosinone’s much stronger underlying output (2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match in the last ten)[^fact-3][^fact-4]. Second, the model assigns a small chance to an away success (9%), which aligns with Juve Stabia’s lower points-per-game and tighter goals profile (1.30 scored, 1.20 conceded)[^fact-5][^fact-2]. Markets were scanned in two places against this model’s view; those comparisons flag the most profitable mismatch as the market underpricing the home side’s probability relative to the model in at least one of the two lines reviewed[^fact-10][^fact-2]. Given the model’s confidence (a 46 percentage-point gap from the runner-up outcome), the clearest structural edge is the concentration of win probability on the hosts rather than more speculative outcomes[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: the combined evidence of form, Elo and recent player performances stacks in favour of Frosinone, with the model assigning a 69% chance of a home win and only a 9% chance of an away victory[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-2]. Absent Sergio Kalaj for the hosts and Salim Diakité for the visitors — the two most consequential absences listed — the balance still tips heavily toward the home side given the underlying numbers[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 46 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FRO vs JUV — Elo differential +277 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FRO recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 8-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.60 PPG, 2.40 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **JUV recent form** — LDWDL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FRO in-form player** — Giacomo Calò — 3 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.89. [^fact-7]: **JUV in-form player** — Alessio Cacciamani — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **FRO key absence** — Sergio Kalaj out (injury). [^fact-9]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 539 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .