# Frosinone vs Juve Stabia > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37880) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Frosinone win:** 69% - **Draw:** 23% - **Juve Stabia win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear favourites on paper as cup test looms large ## The stage This is a Coppa Italia tie scheduled for Sun 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC in a single-match knockout setting[^fact-1]. The fixture pits the home side against the visitors under cup conditions that make any single result decisive[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The home side arrives with a dominant recent run: WWWWD in their last 10 matches, an 8-2-0 record, collecting 2.60 points per game while averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, the visitors have a mixed sequence — LDWDL in their last 10, a 3-4-3 record, 1.30 points per game and averages of 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those on-pitch trends are reflected in the Elo gap: the home side holds a +277 Elo differential after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The quantitative model also heavily favours the hosts, assigning Home 69%, Draw 23% and Away 9% probabilities, with a 46 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Together these metrics indicate clear momentum and quality advantage for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-4]. ## Personnel The hosts’ attacking rhythm is driven by Giacomo Calò, who has produced 3 goals and 3 assists across his last 5 appearances while carrying an average rating of 7.89 in that span[^fact-6]. That combination of end product and consistent match ratings is central to the hosts’ high goals-per-game output[^fact-6][^fact-4]. However, the home side must do without Sergio Kalaj, who is out injured[^fact-8]. The absence of Kalaj is the clearest personnel caveat for the hosts[^fact-8]. The visitors’ best form comes from Alessio Cacciamani, who has provided 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and holds an average rating of 7.05 across those matches, despite not scoring in that sequence[^fact-7]. The visitors will also be missing Salim Diakité through injury; Diakité logged 539 minutes in the recent run before his absence was confirmed[^fact-9]. Losing Diakité’s 539 minutes of recent involvement is a tangible depletion of the visitors’ available minutes[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probability distribution is Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 9%, a decisive lean toward the hosts with a 46 percentage-point gap between first and second preferences[^fact-2]. That gap, combined with a +277 Elo edge for the hosts after home advantage, is the core quantitative justification for backing the home-side outcome on pure value grounds[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Market comparisons analysed are noted as 2 market(s) compared against the model, which frames where discrepancies might exist between bookmakers and the model’s projection[^fact-10]. Given the hosts’ 2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match in recent form, market lines that underprice a comfortable home win or understate the likelihood of multiple goals for the hosts would be the most likely areas to find model-market divergence[^fact-4][^fact-2]. The visitors’ 1.30 goals for and 1.20 conceded per match suggests a narrower attacking threat and more porous defence relative to the hosts, informing why the model’s 9% away probability sits low[^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: the hosts are clear favourites with Home 69% on the projection, supported by a +277 Elo edge and markedly superior recent output (2.40 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match) compared with the visitors (1.30 scored / 1.20 conceded per match)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Key player form and absences — the hosts’ Giacomo Calò in form and the misses of Sergio Kalaj, plus the visitors’ loss of Salim Diakité — further tilt the balance toward the home side on paper[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-9]. Markets were checked across 2 market(s) against the model for possible edges[^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 23% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 46 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FRO vs JUV — Elo differential +277 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FRO recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 8-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.60 PPG, 2.40 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **JUV recent form** — LDWDL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FRO in-form player** — Giacomo Calò — 3 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.89. [^fact-7]: **JUV in-form player** — Alessio Cacciamani — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **FRO key absence** — Sergio Kalaj out (injury). [^fact-9]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 539 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .