# Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37888) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Fredrikstad win:** 74% - **Draw:** 18% - **Kristiansund win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo gap and clear model lean point to home control ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 16 Aug 2026 at 17:15 UTC in Eliteserien; this is a domestic league meeting with immediate table implications for both sides given the timing in the season[^fact-1]. The model singles out a clear favourite for the contest: Home 74%, Draw 18%, Away 9% — a margin that comes with high confidence, described as a 56 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Fredrikstad arrive with a mixed but slightly superior recent sequence: LLWDW in their last 10 matches, recorded as 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, yielding 0.80 points per game and an attacking output of 0.90 goals per match while conceding 1.60 on average[^fact-4]. Kristiansund have fared a touch worse over the same sample: LDLLL in their last 10, recorded as 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses, producing 0.60 points per game and scoring 0.70 goals per match while also conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-5]. The Elo model assigns a large edge to the home side: an Elo differential of +208 points for Fredrikstad with home advantage applied, a margin that translates into a substantial single-match quality gap on the rating scale[^fact-3]. When Elo and recent form are read together, Fredrikstad carry more baseline pedigree into the fixture while Kristiansund have struggled to pose consistent attacking threats in the data window[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Fredrikstad’s most in-form option in the attacking third is Daniel Eid, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.33 over that run[^fact-6]. That attacking contribution is important for a side averaging under a goal per game in the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Kristiansund’s most productive forward in the same period is L. Alvheim, with 2 goals and no assists across his last five matches and an average rating of 6.66[^fact-7]; his finishing has been the clearest outlet for a side otherwise registering just 0.70 goals per match in the data window[^fact-5][^fact-7]. Both teams face meaningful absences. Fredrikstad will be without Leonard Owusu due to injury; Owusu has logged 601 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a significant chunk of recent minutes for the home side[^fact-8]. Kristiansund will be missing N. Ødegård through injury as well; Ødegård has contributed 452 minutes in the recent window and his absence also trims the visiting side’s available minutes[^fact-9]. Those losses cut into rotation depth and continuity for their respective units, but the raw Elo edge and the model’s probability split indicate Fredrikstad’s underlying quality compensates more readily for their missing man according to the data[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s verdict is emphatic: a 74% probability for a home win versus an 18% chance of a draw and 9% for an away win[^fact-2]. That signal was tested against two market offerings in the model assessment, with the comparison process noting divergences between market prices and the model’s probabilities in two markets reviewed[^fact-10]. The clearest edge sits with the outright home outcome given the Elo cushion (+208) and the disparity in recent attacking returns (0.90 goals per match for the home side versus 0.70 for the away side) together with the model’s high-confidence split[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2][^fact-10]. Secondary edges would be expected to attach to low-scoring matchlines given both teams concede 1.60 goals per game in the sample, but any market-specific framing was part of the two-market comparison rather than the primary outright signal[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: Fredrikstad are the clear favourites on probability and Elo ground, carrying the superior profile even with a key absence in midfield minutes; Kristiansund arrive low on attacking output and without their minutes-eating presence, leaving the balance firmly towards a home result in this fixture[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 18% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 56 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FFK vs Kristiansund — Elo differential +208 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FFK recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Kristiansund recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FFK in-form player** — Daniel Eid — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-7]: **Kristiansund in-form player** — L. Alvheim — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.66. [^fact-8]: **FFK key absence** — Leonard Owusu out (injury), 601 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Kristiansund key absence** — N. Ødegård out (injury), 452 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .