# Mirassol vs Flamengo > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37898) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Mirassol win:** 33% - **Draw:** 33% - **Flamengo win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog resilience meets elite firepower — clear model lean ## The stage Mirassol host Flamengo in a Serie A evening kick-off scheduled for Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Recent results point to a contrast in trajectories. Mirassol arrive with a W–D–L split of 4–2–4 over their last 10 matches, averaging 1.40 points per game and scoring 1.10 while conceding 1.20 per match in that span. [^fact-4] Flamengo’s sequence reads W–D–W–L–D across their last 10, recorded as 6–3–1, and producing 2.10 points per game with 2.10 goals scored and only 0.90 conceded per match — a clear superiority in raw output. [^fact-5] That on-pitch gap is echoed by Elo: with home advantage applied Mirassol hold a +76 point differential over Flamengo. [^fact-3] The model’s verdict is decisive: it assigns Mirassol a 64% chance, the draw 26%, and Flamengo just 9%, with a 38 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence in the prediction. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Mirassol’s most notable in-form influence is Reinaldo, who has provided 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.39 in that run. [^fact-6] Mirassol will be without Willian Machado through suspension; he logged 630 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence. [^fact-8] For Flamengo, Pedro is the offensive fulcrum: 4 goals and 1 assist across his last 4 appearances, with an average rating of 7.92. [^fact-7] Flamengo are missing Léo Ortiz due to injury; he accounted for 551 minutes in the recent run before his absence. [^fact-9] ## Where the model sees value — top edges vs the market The model was compared against two markets in its calibration and live checks. [^fact-10] Primary edge: the model’s 64% home probability contrasts with Flamengo’s low model share (9%), creating a sizeable split between the two sides’ projected outcomes. [^fact-2] Secondary signal: the Elo differential (+76 with home applied) reinforces that the model’s home tilt is not solely driven by short-term form but also by the rating gap adjusted for venue. [^fact-3] Markets analysed numbered two, and those comparisons underpinned the assessment that the home result is the standout expectation from a probabilistic standpoint. [^fact-10] ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward a Mirassol victory — a 64% probability with high confidence — underpinned by an Elo edge and a market comparison across two markets that both support the home tilt. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] [^fact-10] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 64% / Draw 26% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 38 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Mirassol vs FLA — Elo differential +76 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Mirassol recent form** — DWLWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FLA recent form** — WDWLD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Mirassol in-form player** — Reinaldo  — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-7]: **FLA in-form player** — Pedro — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.92. [^fact-8]: **Mirassol key absence** — Willian Machado out (suspension), 630 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **FLA key absence** — Léo Ortiz out (injury), 551 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .