# Pisa vs Empoli > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Mon 17 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37904) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Pisa win:** 33% - **Draw:** 33% - **Empoli win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy home advantage meets visitor fragility in cup tie ## The stage This Coppa Italia tie kicks off on Mon 17 Aug 2026 at 16:00 UTC, an early-summer fixture that acts as a first knockout test of the calendar year for both sides[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Pisa arrive in fragile form: their last 10 matches read LLLLL (1-0-9 W-D-L), producing 0.30 points per game with 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Empoli’s recent sequence is healthier by comparison, DWLDL across 10 (2-4-4 W-D-L), delivering 1.00 point per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo, Pisa carry a clear edge once home advantage is applied, with a +105-point differential over Empoli[^fact-3]. The model crystallises those inputs into a strong probability split: a 72% chance for the home side, 19% for a draw and 9% for the away win, with the model reporting high confidence (a 53 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome)[^fact-2]. That combination — poor recent results at Pisa paired with a substantial Elo advantage and a model that heavily favours the hosts — frames the tie as one where form and rating point in different directions but the model ultimately trusts the home edge[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Pisa’s most notable in-form figure in the immediate window is Stefano Moreo, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.80[^fact-6]. Empoli’s recent top-performing player is Stiven Shpendi, on 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings with an average rating of 6.75[^fact-7]. On availability, Pisa are missing C. Stengs through injury, a player who logged 26 minutes in the recent run before that absence[^fact-8]. Empoli will be without Federico Brancolini due to injury[^fact-9]. Those absences strip both squads of specific options but the facts do not quantify their tactical impact beyond minutes or identity[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the model as part of the market comparison process[^fact-10]. Against those markets the model’s clearest signal is the home win probability at 72% versus market pricing, with the draw at 19% and the away chance at 9%[^fact-2][^fact-10]. The model’s internal confidence — a 53 percentage-point margin to the runner-up probability — indicates a pronounced lean rather than a marginal edge[^fact-2]. Given Pisa’s fragile recent results in raw form metrics (0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals for, 2.30 conceded) and Empoli’s steadier if unspectacular numbers (1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals for, 1.50 conceded), the model is effectively favouring systemic factors captured by Elo and home advantage over the immediate trendline[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. The market comparison step (two markets reviewed) is therefore flagging the model’s home lean as its central discrepancy with available market pricing rather than an alternative special-market angle[^fact-10][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is a strong lean to the hosts: a 72% probability for the home win, a 19% chance of a draw and a 9% chance of an away win, with high internal confidence reflected by a 53-point gap to the next outcome[^fact-2]. On paper this reads as a home-side favourite despite Pisa’s recent on-field struggles and Empoli’s marginally better recent form, because the Elo-based home edge and the model’s aggregate view still favour the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 17 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 19% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 53 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PIS vs EMP — Elo differential +105 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EMP recent form** — DWLDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **PIS in-form player** — Stefano Moreo — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-7]: **EMP in-form player** — Stiven Shpendi — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.75. [^fact-8]: **PIS key absence** — C. Stengs out (injury), 26 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **EMP key absence** — Federico Brancolini out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .