# Pisa vs Empoli > Coppa Italia · Kickoff Mon 17 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37904) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Pisa win:** 33% - **Draw:** 33% - **Empoli win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Pisa's slump meets Empoli's cautious Coppa opportunity tonight ## The stage This is a single-match Coppa Italia tie kicking off on Mon 17 Aug 2026 at 16:00 UTC, a fixture that will be settled on the day rather than over two legs[^fact-1]. The competition context is straightforward: knockout progress in a domestic cup where a single poor performance eliminates a side[^fact-1]. Venue details are not supplied in the facts, so the focus here stays on form, personnel and the model’s output for the day[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Pisa arrive in a clear trough of results: five straight defeats and a 1-0-9 record across the last 10 matches, producing 0.30 points per game, with 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Those numbers describe a side that has struggled both to create and to stop goals across the recent sample[^fact-4]. Empoli’s recent sample is markedly healthier: over their last 10 matches they are 2-4-4 for 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.30 and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-5]. That profile suggests more balance and greater defensive stability than Pisa’s recent outputs, even if Empoli have not been winning consistently[^fact-5]. The Elo metric applied to the fixture gives Pisa an edge of +105 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That differential typically signals a not-insignificant quality gap when Elo is the lens, though the model’s match verdict is perfectly flat — Home 33% / Draw 33% / Away 33% — and the model declares low confidence in that split (no percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome)[^fact-2]. The juxtaposition is notable: Elo favours the home side while recent form and the model’s probabilistic read keep outcomes evenly distributed[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Pisa’s attacking touch has been limited, and the in-form reference appears to be Stefano Moreo, who has contributed 1 goal and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.80[^fact-6]. That single goal in five suggests Pisa lack prolific recent finishing from their lead forward[^fact-6]. A substantive absence for Pisa is C. Stengs, listed out through injury with only 26 minutes in the recent run — a subtraction of a named piece of minutes that the team has had to manage without[^fact-8]. Empoli’s most notable recent contributor is Stiven Shpendi, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.75, a slightly lower average rating than Pisa’s named in-form player but a higher direct goal involvement rate over the same span[^fact-7][^fact-6]. Empoli also carry a named injury absence: goalkeeper Federico Brancolini is out[^fact-9]. The facts provide no further detail on backup options or how that absence is being handled, but a missing goalkeeper is a clear structural absence for any cup tie[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Two markets were analysed against the model for this fixture[^fact-10]. The model itself returns an evenly split probability across home, draw and away — 33% each — reflecting low conviction and effectively no edge to any single match outcome[^fact-2]. The Elo differential of +105 in Pisa’s favour sits in tension with that flat probabilistic output, indicating that markets and the model may have different priors: Elo points to a quality tilt for the home side, while form and the model’s uncertainty mute that tilt[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Because the available facts do not include explicit market odds, the precise numerical edges against the market cannot be stated here; the structured data confirms two market comparisons were made, but does not provide the quoted odds or market prices to quantify a recommendation[^fact-10]. What can be said from the supplied information is directional: markets that price notably away from a three-way split should be interpreted in light of Pisa’s adverse recent form and Empoli’s stronger recent defensive record, together with the +105 Elo advantage credited to Pisa[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model is agnostic — a dead-heat 33/33/33 probability with low confidence — while Elo assigns Pisa a material edge of +105 points; recent form pulls in the opposite direction, with Pisa’s severe drop in output contrasting with Empoli’s relatively steadier numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Personnel lines sharpen that split: Pisa are light in attacking returns and missing C. Stengs, Empoli have Shpendi in form but are without Brancolini between the posts[^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-9]. The primary story of the tie is therefore a clash between long-term Elo-implied strength and short-term form, with the model refusing to side decisively either way[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 17 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC — Coppa Italia [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 33% / Away 33% (source: model; confidence low, 0 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PIS vs EMP — Elo differential +105 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EMP recent form** — DWLDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **PIS in-form player** — Stefano Moreo — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-7]: **EMP in-form player** — Stiven Shpendi — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.75. [^fact-8]: **PIS key absence** — C. Stengs out (injury), 26 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **EMP key absence** — Federico Brancolini out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .