# Benfica II vs Al Nassr > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Wed 22 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37925) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Benfica II 2–1 Al Nassr ## Model verdict - **Benfica II win:** 50% - **Draw:** 18% - **Al Nassr win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Friction Between Form and Elo: Goals Market Holds Interest ## The stage This is a mid‑summer club friendly listed as Club Friendlies 1, kicking off at 17:00 UTC on Wed 22 Jul 2026[^fact-1]. The fixture offers little competitive consequence beyond tune‑up value, but it functions as a meaningful calibration point for both sides ahead of their respective seasons[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Al Nassr arrive on a clear hot run: their rolling sequence reads WDWLW in the last 10, compiled into an 8‑1‑1 W‑D‑L split, worth 2.50 points per game and supported by 2.60 goals scored and just 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The numbers show an attack firing and a defence leaking rarely, a profile that produces consistent results over a small sample[^fact-4]. Despite Al Nassr’s recent momentum, model power ratings project the home side with an Elo advantage once home advantage is applied, amounting to an 81‑point edge[^fact-3]. That Elo differential is material in a neutral predictive framework and helps explain why the model’s primary outcome probabilities favour the home side while still leaving room for an away return[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The biggest positive for Al Nassr is the current scoring form of João Félix, who has four goals and two assists across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.53 in that spell[^fact-6]. That kind of individual output accounts for a large slice of Al Nassr’s 2.60 goals per game figure in recent matches[^fact-6][^fact-4]. On the flip side, Al Nassr will be without Mohamed Simakan due to injury; he has totalled 360 minutes in the recent run and his absence is the clearest personnel downgrade noted in the facts provided[^fact-7]. That is the only specific absence or squad detail available for either side in the supplied notes, and there are no other named Benfica II personnel facts to weigh into selection expectations[^fact-7][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two concentrated signals versus market prices. First and foremost: the under 2.5 goals market carries the most systematic edge. The model assigns a 54% probability to under 2.5, while Marathonbet offers a market line priced at 2.35 — an implied probability materially lower than the model’s estimate, producing an edge of 11.8 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-5]. That value is consistent with the profile that combines an Elo advantage for the home side and Al Nassr’s well‑contained concession rate of 0.90 per match; higher likelihood of a disciplined, low‑conceding game pushes the under lean[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Markets analysed number three in total against the model’s outputs, of which the under‑2.5 angle is the clearest mismatch between model and market pricing in the supplied comparisons[^fact-8][^fact-5]. The model’s outcome probabilities — Home 50%, Draw 18%, Away 33% — further frame how the model balances the match: home favoured but not overwhelmingly so, which coheres with a contest that can tilt tactical and remain low scoring[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is a home advantage: Home 50%, Draw 18%, Away 33% — a modest but decisive edge to the hosts when home advantage is factored in[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The most actionable cross‑check against the market is the under 2.5 goals angle, where the model’s 54% probability versus Marathonbet’s 2.35 implies the strongest single market edge from the analysed set[^fact-5][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 22 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 50% / Draw 18% / Away 33% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SLB B vs ANA — Elo differential +81 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ANA recent form** — WDWLW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 2.60 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.35 at Marathonbet, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **ANA in-form player** — João Félix — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.53. [^fact-7]: **ANA key absence** — Mohamed Simakan out (injury), 360 minutes in recent run. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .