# Everton vs Crystal Palace > Premier League · Kickoff Sat 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37968) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Everton win:** 33% - **Draw:** 33% - **Crystal Palace win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog model favours Palace despite Everton’s Elo edge ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC ahead of a Premier League meeting at Goodison Park. [^fact-1] This fixture lands early in the domestic campaign and carries standard top-flight consequence as teams seek points; market activity around two lines was analysed pre-match. [^fact-10] ## Form & momentum Recent results point to low-running confidence on both sides: Everton have the sequence LLDDL in their last ten matches and are on a 2-3-5 (W-D-L) split in that same sample, producing 0.90 PPG with 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Crystal Palace record LDLDL over their last ten and sit on a 2-4-4 (W-D-L) split, returning 1.00 PPG with 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5] By Elo, Everton carry an edge over Crystal Palace: a +67 point differential with home advantage applied. [^fact-3] The model nonetheless prefers the visitors: it rates Away at 49%, Draw at 33% and Home at 18%, with a high-confidence spread of 16 percentage points to the runner-up. [^fact-2] Those numbers frame a clash between historic match-up balance tilted by form and an Elo advantage that has not yet translated into sustained recent returns for the home side. [^fact-3] [^fact-4] ## Personnel Everton’s most in-form contributor in the recent run is James Tarkowski, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.12. [^fact-6] Crystal Palace’s current hot player is Ismaïla Sarr, with 2 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.71. [^fact-7] Everton will be missing Beto through injury; he has logged 593 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-8] Crystal Palace are without Evann Guessand due to injury; he has contributed 194 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-9] Those absences trim attacking depth in different ways: Everton lose a near-regular source of minutes while Palace are coping without a more limited-minute option. [^fact-8] [^fact-9] ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary signal is clear: an Away lean at 49% versus a Home projection of 18% produces a pronounced gap between expectation and the baseline home advantage implied by Elo. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] Given Everton’s 0.90 PPG and Palace’s 1.00 PPG across the recent ten-match windows, the expected match control metric tilts slightly toward the visitors when form and current attacking output are weighted together. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] Personnel shapes the market edge. James Tarkowski’s recent attacking returns (1 goal, 2 assists, 7.12 rating) anchor Everton’s positive moments, but the loss of a 593-minute contributor in Beto reduces forward continuity for the home side. [^fact-6] [^fact-8] Ismaïla Sarr’s two goals in five and 6.71 average rating constitute Palace’s clearest direct threat in the same sample, and Palace’s marginally higher PPG combined with the model’s away preference produces the primary value signal. [^fact-7] [^fact-5] [^fact-2] Market lines were compared across two key markets before publishing; the model’s 16 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up underpins where the model identifies mispricing. [^fact-10] [^fact-2] ## Verdict The model leans to Crystal Palace — the away outcome is rated 49% versus 18% for the home side — driven by a slightly superior recent points return, a clearer current attacking threat in Sarr and the impact of Everton’s missing minutes from Beto despite Everton’s +67 Elo edge. [^fact-2] [^fact-5] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] [^fact-3] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 18% / Draw 33% / Away 49% (source: model; confidence high, 16 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — EVE vs CRY — Elo differential +67 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **EVE recent form** — LLDDL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CRY recent form** — LDLDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **EVE in-form player** — James Tarkowski — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-7]: **CRY in-form player** — Ismaïla Sarr — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.71. [^fact-8]: **EVE key absence** — Beto out (injury), 593 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **CRY key absence** — Evann Guessand out (injury), 194 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 2 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .