# St. Johnstone vs Celtic > Premiership · Kickoff Wed 9 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37969) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Johnstone 0–1 Celtic ## Model verdict - **St. Johnstone win:** 9% - **Draw:** 12% - **Celtic win:** 79% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Celtic overwhelming favourites as St. Johnstone chase an upset ## The stage This midweek Premiership fixture kicks off on Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 19:00 UTC, a schedule that compresses recovery windows but leaves no ambiguity about timing for both sides[^fact-1]. The game pits a heavy model-favoured away side against a home team that faces long odds, so the competitive context is straightforward: a likely points haul for the visitors according to the projection[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form frames the contest in stark contrast. St. Johnstone have produced WDLLW across their last 10 outings (3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses), collecting 1.00 point per game while averaging 1.30 goals scored and conceding 1.80 per match[^fact-4]. Celtic’s run reads WWWWW for the last 10 fixtures (9 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) and yields 2.80 points per game with 2.60 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The model assigns a dominant probability split — Home 9%, Draw 12%, Away 79% — a gap that reflects the recent runs and other inputs[^fact-2]. That skew is reinforced by an Elo differential of -349 in St. Johnstone’s favour once home advantage is applied, a substantial margin pointing to a clear quality gap between the sides[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent influence. Jamie Gullan is the in-form figure for St. Johnstone with 0 goals and 2 assists in his last three appearances and an average match rating of 7.14[^fact-8]. For Celtic, Benjamin Nygren is the attacking form player: 2 goals and 1 assist in his last three outings with a 7.64 average rating[^fact-9]. On the injury front, St. Johnstone will be without B. Mikulić due to injury[^fact-10]. Celtic are missing Alistair Johnston through injury as well; his absence follows a recent run totalling 441 minutes before this layoff[^fact-11]. These personnel notes frame both teams’ available attacking and defensive resources without projecting specific tactics. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights two clear edges versus market prices across three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the Under 2.5 goals market is favoured by the model at 54% compared with the market price implied by Pinnacle’s 2.47, giving an edge of 13.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the Away Match Winner line is a 77% model probability versus a market price of 1.53 at Dafabet, producing an 11.9 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Both selections are identified with high confidence by the model and sit on opposite spectrums: one anticipates a lower-scoring match, the other a clear away success[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The three markets compared to the model underline where public pricing diverges from the projection[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a 79% probability that the away side takes the points, supported by a -349 Elo gap and a catalogue of superior recent form and output from Celtic, while St. Johnstone’s lower points-per-game and defensive fragility leave them under pressure[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The two highest-confidence market edges are Away Match Winner and Under 2.5 goals, reflecting both the expected result and a model view that the scoreline may not be as expansive as form alone suggests[^fact-7][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 9 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 79% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STJ vs CEL — Elo differential -349 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STJ recent form** — WDLLW last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CEL recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 9-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.80 PPG, 2.60 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.47 at Pinnacle, edge 13.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.53 at Dafabet, edge 11.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **STJ in-form player** — Jamie Gullan — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-9]: **CEL in-form player** — Benjamin Nygren — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-10]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-11]: **CEL key absence** — Alistair Johnston out (injury), 441 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .