# Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Nordsjælland > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 23 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38208) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sønderjyske Fodbold 0–3 Nordsjælland ## Model verdict - **Sønderjyske Fodbold win:** 22% - **Draw:** 21% - **Nordsjælland win:** 57% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors arrive heavy favourites as goals market looks contrarian ## The stage Kickoff for this Superliga fixture is Sun 23 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The model places a clear probability split with the visitors on top: Home 22% / Draw 20% / Away 58%, and the model signals high confidence with a 36 percentage-point gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] Elo adjusted for venue gives the away side an edge, with an Elo differential of -55 in SON’s favour after home advantage is applied (i.e., the visitors are stronger by 55 Elo points). [^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Sønderjyske arrive in poor form, producing LDLLL across their last 10 matches (2-1-7 W-D-L), averaging 0.70 points per game and scoring 1.10 while conceding 2.10 goals per match. [^fact-4] Nordsjælland have been the hotter side, WWDWD in their last 10 (4-5-1 W-D-L), with 1.70 points per game and a defensive profile that concedes just 0.70 while scoring 1.20 on average. [^fact-5] Put simply: the visitors combine better recent results and a superior defensive output, and that is reflected both in the model probabilities and the Elo gap. [^fact-2][^fact-3] ## Personnel Sønderjyske’s most notable in-form attacking presence is Mohamed Cherif Haidara, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.90 across those outings. [^fact-7] The visitors’ form player is Runar Norheim, with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.10. [^fact-8] Availability questions skew the balance further: Sønderjyske will be without Daníel Leó Grétarsson through injury, who logged 598 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-9] Nordsjælland are missing Alexander Lind through injury; he accounted for 289 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-10] Those absences remove regular minutes from each side; the larger minutes lost on the home side (598) is notable given their already fragile defensive numbers. [^fact-9][^fact-4] ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed: 3 market(s) were compared against the model. [^fact-11] The clearest edge identified is on the Under 2.5 goals market. The model projects Under 2.5 with 62% probability versus a market-implied price on Betfair of 2.88, producing an edge of 27.1 percentage points and flagged with high confidence. [^fact-6] That projection sits alongside a model that heavily favours the away win (58%) and a visiting side that concedes only 0.70 goals per match in recent form, which helps explain the model’s conviction on a lower-goals outcome even with the visitors as favorites. [^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-6] The market price for Under 2.5 at 2.88 is the specific divergence highlighted by the model from those three markets analysed. [^fact-6][^fact-11] ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the visitors: Away 58% is the dominant single probability and is supported by an Elo advantage of 55 points after home adjustment and markedly better recent form. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5] At the same time, the strongest market inefficiency identified is under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 62% projection contrasts with a Betfair price of 2.88 and an edge of 27.1 percentage points. [^fact-6] Expect a visiting side that defends compactly and a game that the model sees as more likely to stay under three goals than the market currently prices. [^fact-5][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 23 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 22% / Draw 20% / Away 58% (source: model; confidence high, 36 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SON vs FCN — Elo differential -55 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SON recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCN recent form** — WWDWD last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 62% vs market price 2.88 at Betfair, edge 27.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SON in-form player** — Mohamed Cherif Haidara — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-8]: **FCN in-form player** — Runar Norheim — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-9]: **SON key absence** — Daníel Leó Grétarsson  out (injury), 598 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **FCN key absence** — Alexander Lind out (injury), 289 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .